Members of this theme are primarily based in the TB Modelling group. More detailed information about group members and ongoing projects can be found there. 

The focus of this theme is to use mathematical and statistical models to better understand the natural history and epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB), and to improve the contribution of TB modelling to policy decisions and implementation.

Apart from publishing in the field of TB, the group is actively contributing to key policy decisions and implementation work. Recent work includes the development of a WHO policy brief on TB vaccines, important changes to our understanding of TB natural history, setting the WHO post-2015 targets for TB control, and co-coordinating the development of new TB modelling tools for use by stakeholders including National TB Programmes, the Global Fund and the Stop TB Partnership, to support TB planning and resource estimation.

The group also hosts the Secretariat of the TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium, a global collaboration aimed to improve the contribution of TB modelling to policy decisions and implementation.

Members of the theme meet on a weekly basis, Tuesdays 15:00-16:00, and all who are interested are welcome to attend (contact the theme coordinator for the location).

An investment case for new tuberculosis vaccines. World Health Organization commissioned report, 2022.

McQuaid CF, Clark RA, White RG, Bakker R, Alexander P, Henry R, Velayutham B, Muniyandi M, Sinha P, Bhargava M, Bhargava A, Houben RMGJ. Estimating the epidemiological and economic impact of providing nutritional care for tuberculosis-affected households across India: a modelling study. Lancet Glob Health. 2025 Mar;13(3):e488-e496. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(24)00505-9. Epub 2025 Jan 14. PMID: 39824201; PMCID: PMC11865009.

Horton KC, Richards AS, Emery JC, Esmail H, Houben RMGJ. Reevaluating progression and pathways following Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection within the spectrum of tuberculosis. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2023 Nov 21;120(47):e2221186120. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2221186120. Epub 2023 Nov 14. PMID: 37963250; PMCID: PMC10666121.

Richards AS, Sossen B, Emery JC, Horton KC, Heinsohn T, Frascella B, Balzarini F, Oradini-Alacreu A, Häcker B, Odone A, McCreesh N, Grant AD, Kranzer K, Cobelens F, Esmail H, Houben RMGJ. Quantifying progression and regression across the spectrum of pulmonary tuberculosis: a data synthesis study. Lancet Glob Health. 2023 May;11(5):e684-e692. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(23)00082-7. Epub 2023 Mar 23. PMID: 36966785; PMCID: PMC10126316.