What we do

The focus of this theme is to use mathematical and statistical models to better understand the natural history and epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB), and to improve the contribution of TB modelling to policy decisions and implementation.

Members of this theme are primarily based in the TB Modelling group. More detailed information about group members and ongoing projects can be found there. 

Apart from publishing in the field of TB, the group is actively contributing to key policy decisions and implementation work. Recent work includes supporting the process of setting the WHO post-2015 targets for TB control and the post-2015 Research Agenda, and co-coordinating the development of a new country-level TB modelling tool for use by countries to support TB control planning and resource estimation. The group also hosts the Secretariat of the TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium, a global collaboration aimed to improve the contribution of TB modelling to policy decisions and implementation.

Members of the theme meet on a weekly basis, Tuesdays 16:00-17:30, and all interested are welcome to attend (contact the theme coordinator for location).

Self-clearance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection: implications for lifetime risk and population at-risk of tuberculosis disease.

Figure 3. Country-level model results for the number of people with a viable Mtb infection in the lifelong infection and self-clearance scenarios. (a–c) The estimated population at risk of TB disease in 2019 disaggregated by age in three epidemiologically distinct settings for the cases of lifelong Mtb infection (red outlined) and self-clearance (red filled). (d) The total population with a viable infection in each setting, assuming self-clearance, expressed as a percentage of the total population with a vi

Potential impact of tuberculosis vaccines in China, South Africa, and India

Figure 3: Vaccine impact by prevention of infection and prevention of disease efficacy. Incidence rate reduction in 2050 by country from a vaccine with 10 years duration of protection for prevention of infection or disease or both, with efficacy in pre- and post-infection populations (P&PI, top row), pre-infection populations (PRI, centre row) or post-infection populations (PSI, bottom row), assumed safe and efficacious in HIVpositive populations, delivered from 2025 as routine vaccination of 9-year-olds an


Finn McQuaid

Finn McQuaid

Theme lead