Study improves understanding of higher rate of COVID-19 death among disabled peopleWednesday 16 June 2021
Modelling Step 4 of the UK Government’s Spring 2021 “Roadmap” out of lockdown in EnglandTuesday 15 June 2021
Mapping child survival and why it matters for the Kenyan child: Insights from geospatial modelling
Innovative science is often borne out of necessity, and this pandemic is no different. Scientists around the world have sequenced the SARS Cov-2 genome, rapidly identified COVID-19 strains and developed successful vaccines in record-breaking time to tackle the virus. COVID-19 diagnostics, such as PCR and lateral flow tests (LFT), are now an intrinsic part of our everyday lives, helping to detect cases and prevent small, localised outbreaks from becoming epidemics. However, these tools – while crucial – are invasive, costly and do not offer immediate results.
After more than 14 months living with COVID-19 restrictions in the UK, the importance of social support has never been clearer, particularly when it comes to raising children. As the physical links between households were cut, maternity and community health services restricted, and early years settings and schools closed, the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 rapidly slowed. However, so did the flow of essential social support to parents.
In 1978 I went to work in The Gambia as a junior doctor at the Medical Research Council (MRC) research unit hospital. With a population of less than one million at the time there was only one government ophthalmologist, Dr Shiona Sowa. I got to know Dr. Sowa well and heard about the work which had brought her to The Gambia - to try out new vaccines for trachoma.
The COVID-19 pandemic has sparked great interest in the mathematical models used to estimate disease transmission in the population. These models have figured prominently in the decisions of many governments, as they can help project the course of the disease, allocate people and resources, and evaluate the impact of policies. But models - though undoubtedly valuable - are not crystal balls; they are only as good as the available information.