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Real-time outbreak analysis

CMMID members regularly provide real-time analysis of infectious disease outbreaks in collaboration with partners such as the WHO, Médecins sans Frontières (MSF) or the UK Public Health Rapid Support Team, which is jointly run by Public Health England and LSHTM. Epidemiological models can be used to get valuable insights into ongoing outbreaks by testing alternative assumptions about epidemiological processes, estimating key epidemiological parameters, predicting the future course of outbreaks or by evaluating alternative intervention strategies.

In the past, members have been involved in the following outbreak responses:

  • 2014–16 West African Ebola virus epidemic
  • 2016 Cholera outbreak in Haiti after hurricane Matthew hit the island
  • 2017 Cholera outbreak in Yemen
  • 2017/18 Diphtheria outbreak in Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals in Bangladesh.
  • 2018/19 Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

People

Flavio Finger (theme co-ordinator), Anton CamachoRosalind EggoJohn EdmundsSebastian FunkChris Jarvis, Thibaut Jombart, Adam Kucharski, Kathleen O’Reilly

Selected publications

Camacho, A., Bouhenia, M., Alyusfi, R., Alkohlani, A., Naji, M.A.M., de Radiguès, X., Abubakar, A.M., Almoalmi, A., Seguin, C., Sagrado, M.J. and Poncin, M., 2018. Cholera epidemic in Yemen, 2016–18: an analysis of surveillance dataThe Lancet Global Health6(6), pp.e680-e690.

Finger, F., Funk, S., White, K., Siddiqui, R., Edmunds, W.J. and Kucharski, A.J., 2018. Real-time analysis of the diphtheria outbreak in forcibly displaced Myanmar nationals in Bangladesh. bioRxiv, p.388645.

Camacho, A., Eggo, R.M., Funk, S., Watson, C.H., Kucharski, A.J., Edmunds, W.J. Estimating the probability of demonstrating vaccine efficacy in the declining Ebola epidemic: a Bayesian modelling approachBMJ Open 5:e009346.

Camacho, A., Kucharski, A., Aki-Sawyerr, Y., White, M.A., Flasche, S., Baguelin, M., Pollington, T., Carney, J.R., Glover, R., Smout, E., Tiffany, A., Edmunds, W.J. and Funk, S. Temporal Changes in Ebola Transmission in Sierra Leone and Implications for Control Requirements: a Real-time Modelling StudyPLoS Currents Feb 10, 1.

Kucharski, A.J., Camacho, A., Checchi, F., Waldman, R., Grais, R.F., Cabrol, J.C., Briand, S., Baguelin, M., Flasche, S., Funk, S. and Edmunds, W.J. Evaluation of the Benefits and Risks of Introducing Ebola Community Care Centers, Sierra LeoneEmerging Infectious Diseases 2014; 21.

Real-time dynamic modelling for the design of a cluster-randomized phase 3 Ebola vaccine trial in Sierra Leone A Camacho, RM Eggo, N Goeyvaerts, A Vandebosch, R Mogg, S Funk, …
Vaccine 35 (4), 544-551

Real-time forecasting of infectious disease dynamics with a stochastic semi-mechanistic model S Funk, A Camacho, AJ Kucharski, RM Eggo, WJ Edmunds
Epidemics

Transmission dynamics of Zika virus in island populations: a modelling analysis of the 2013–14 French Polynesia outbreak AJ Kucharski, S Funk, RM Eggo, HP Mallet, WJ Edmunds, EJ Nilles
PLoS neglected tropical diseases 10 (5), e0004726

Duration of Ebola virus RNA persistence in semen of survivors: population-level estimates and projections
RM Eggo, CH Watson, A Camacho, AJ Kucharski, S Funk, WJ Edmunds
Eurosurveillance 20 (48)

Estimating the probability of demonstrating vaccine efficacy in the declining Ebola epidemic: a Bayesian modelling approach
A Camacho, RM Eggo, S Funk, CH Watson, AJ Kucharski, WJ Edmunds
BMJ open 5 (12), e009346

Spatiotemporal dynamics in the early stages of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic
T Jombart, RM Eggo, P Dodd, F Balloux
PLoS currents 1