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TB Modelling Group team

TB Modelling Group

The TB Modelling Group uses mathematical models to better understand the natural history and epidemiology of tuberculosis, and to improve the contribution of modelling to policy decisions and implementation.

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About us

The TB Modelling Group at LSHTM is a multidisciplinary group of mathematical modellers and epidemiologists with varying backgrounds in physics, mathematics, biomedical sciences and biology.

Research

The focus of our research is using mathematical and statistical models to better understand the natural history and epidemiology of TB and to improve the contribution of TB modelling to policy decisions and implementation.

People
Team Block
Programme Manager

Kristian’s background is in project management and administration in international development settings, and his role within the group is the coordination and management of the group’s grants. 

Follow Kristian on Twitter at: @kg_se10.

Programme Coordinators
Christina Spencer

Christina Spencer

Programme Coordinator

In her role as Programme Coordinator, Christina provides administrative, logistical and financial management support for the group. Christina joined LSHTM in 2014 as a Programme Manager based at the London International Development Centre, and since that time has worked on a variety of projects within the School. Her earlier roles at Imperial College London and the MRC Clinical Trials Unit were also in programme management and administration.

Miyo
Hanazawa

Coordinator

Miyo works as a Programme Coordinator, providing administrative, logistical and financial management support for the group. Her background is in international development management and prior to joining LSHTM in 2017, she worked for various ODA projects in Latin America and Asia primarily in the field of higher education.

Professor

Richard
White

Professor

Richard's research focus is the mathematical and statistical modelling of the transmission and control of infectious diseases, particularly TB and HIV. He co-leads the TB modelling group and has a broad interest in the use of models to better understand the transmission, prevention, and care of TB. He has particular interests in the use of models to improve TB prevention and care decision making at global and country level, and to accelerate the development of new TB vaccines.

Follow Richard on Twitter at: @richardwhite321.

Associate Professors

Rein
Houben

Associate Professor

Rein is a TB epidemiologist and mathematical modeller. He co-leads the TB modelling group, where his primary research focus is the natural history of TB, in particular the dynamic spectrum of infection and disease as part of an ERC Starting Grant. In addition Rein has a wide interest in informing TB policy as well as understanding the social and structural determinants of TB. 

Follow Rein on Twitter at: @Rein_Houben.

Gwen
Knight

Associate Professor

Gwen's research focuses on the spread of antibiotic resistance: by understanding where it comes from can we design novel methods for control? She has worked on estimating the fitness costs of resistance in TB, the impact of vaccination and estimates of the latent burden of drug-resistant TB infection. 

Follow Gwen on Twitter at: @gmknght.

Emilia
Vynnycky

Associate Professor

Emilia works at Public Health England (PHE) and has an affiliation with LSHTM. She works on modelling infectious diseases with a focus on rubella and TB. Her current TB research interest includes the effect of diagnstic delays.

Assistant Professors
Finn McQuaid

Finn
McQuaid

Assistant Professor

Finn is interested in modelling drug resistant TB, the impact of COVID-19 on TB and treatment adherence technology. He is also the secretariat epidemiologist for the TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium (TB MAC). His background is in maths.

Follow Finn on Twitter at: @cfmcquaid.

Tom
Sumner

Assistant Professor

Tom is interested in using models to predict and understand the impact of interventions. His current work is focused on the use of preventive therapy in high HIV prevalence settings.

Follow Tom on Twitter at: @tomsumner49.

Nicky
McCreesh

Assistant Professor

Nicky is interested in understanding Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission patterns, and in using contact data to develop a better understanding of potential Mtb transmission sites and to inform intervention strategies. She also works on the calibration of complex models.

Christinah
Mukandavire

Assistant Professor

Christinah is interested in development and analysis of mathematical models to understand disease  transmission dynamics,outbreaks, and evaluating the potential impact of intervention strategies. She is currently working on estimating the health impact of new Tuberculosis vaccines in countries with high HIV burden.

Follow Christinah on Twitter at: @cmukandavire.

Katherine
Horton

Assistant Professor

Katherine is an epidemiologist and mathematical modeller interested understanding and addressing disparities that increase TB burden and limit access to diagnosis and treatment.

Follow Katharine on Twitter at: @kc_horton.

Matthew
Quaife

Assistant Professor

Matt is a health economist, interested in combining health economics and infectious disease modelling to understand and solve public health problems. He is currently working on TB modelling studies estimating the impact, cost-effectiveness, and equity impact of TB vaccines and digital adherence technologies.

Follow Matthew on Twitter at: @matthew_quaife

Honorary Assistant Professors

Rebecca
Harris

Honorary Assistant Professor

Rebecca is a vaccine epidemiologist and mathematical modeller. Her research focusses on modelling to inform development and implementation of new and existing TB vaccines, with the goal of informing development of candidates with the greatest potential for future public health impact. Other areas of interest have included modelling the impact of COVID-19 on TB, and development and evaluation of an app (ePAL) for spatial mapping of patients in highly populous low-income settings without addresses.

Follow Rebecca on Twitter at: @RebeccaCHarris.

Research Fellows

Sophie
Rhodes

Research Fellow

Sophie research is focussed on translating mathematical modelling methods used in drug development for dose-finding, to vaccine development. She has used these methods to predict optimal dose for TB and Covid-19. Her background is in mathematics.

Follow Sophie on Twitter at: @sophiejrhodes.

Nicola
Foster

Research Fellow

Nicola's research is focused on the measurement and analysis of the social determinants of tuberculosis. Her background is in pharmacy, public health and health economics. 

Follow Nicola on Twitter at: @nicola_c_foster.

Nabila
Shaikh

Research Assistant

Nabila is a Research Fellow working on multiple projects within the group randing from subclinical disease research to country level TB epidemiology. Nabila previously ran the TIME model at LSHTM.

Follow Nabila on Twitter at: @nabilashaikhs.

Jon
Emery

Research Fellow

Jon is a mathematical modeller of infectious diseases. His research focuses on using modelling methods to infer the underlying natural history of TB from empirical data, before using the results to inform intervention strategies designed to prevent progression to TB disease. 

Follow Jon on Twitter at: @JonCEmery.

Danny
Scarponi

Research Fellow

Danny is interested on the calibration of complex individual-based stochastic models. In particular, he is involved in a project to develop a history matching and model emulation R package. He also works with social contact data, with the aim of understanding Mtb transmission patterns.

Follow Danny on Twitter at: @DannyScarponi.

Kiesha
Prem

Research Fellow

Kiesha is an infectious disease modeller at LSHTM and the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health at the National University of Singapore. She collaborates closely with the national TB programme in Cambodia and Singapore to evaluate the health impact and cost-effectiveness of TB active case-finding strategies. 

Follow Kiesha on Twitter at: @kiesha_prem.

Debora
Pedrazzoli

Research Fellow

Debora is a TB epidemiologist and health economist currently based at the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) at the World Health Organization. Her primary research interest is in expanding the evidence base on the socioeconomic determinants of TB, through the evaluation of mechanisms to increase health care coverage, financial and social protection among people with TB.

Research Assistant

Madeleine
Clarkson

Research Assistant

Madeleine is part of the TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium secatariate. In her role she is responsible for contributing to the ongoing projects, research and events organised by the Consortium. Her research interests are in modelling social networks of drug resistance.

Follow Madeleine on Twitter at: @madeleineclrksn.

Research Degree Students

Alexandra
Richards

Research Degree Student

Alex is a third year research degree student with an interest in modelling the natural history of tuberculosis with a focus on subclinical disease. Her background is in maths, physics, and epidemiology.

Follow Alex on Twitter at: @alexsrichards.

Rebecca
Clark

Research Degree Student

Rebecca is a second year research degree student interested in modelling tuberculosis vaccine implementation strategies both nationally and subnationally. Her background is in math, statistics, and epidemiology.

Follow Rebecca on Twitter at: @ra_clark18.

Martin Harker

Martin Harker

Research Degree Student

Martin is a health economist and first year research degree student. He is looking at modelling the potential effectiveness of preventive therapies for multidrug-resistant TB. His background is in biological sciences, maths and public health.

John
Benest

Research Degree Student

John is a 3rd year research degree student with a MMath from Keele University. He is presently researching the application of PK/PD methods to vaccine dose optimisation. He is mainly focused on the use of statistical and mechanistic methods to describe the relationships between dose-response and dose-safety.

Follow John on Twitter at: @johebe3.

Chathika
Weerasuriya

Research Degree Student

Chathika focuses on the probable impact of new TB vaccines, their cost-effectiveness and their impact of multi-drug resistance. His background is in medicine and infectious disease epidemiology.

Follow Chathika on Twitter at: @cweerasuriya.

Naomi
Fuller

Research Degree Student

Naomi is a first year research degree student at LSHTM looking at using mathematical models built with parameters from experiments (UCL) to improve our understanding of drug resistant TB. Her background is in physics.

Follow Naomi on Twitter at: @naomimfuller.

Epidemiologist
Puck Pelzer

Puck Pelzer

Infectious Disease Epidemiologist

Puck is an infectious disease epidemiologist specializing in TB and vaccines. At LSHTM she explores implementation strategies for late-stage tuberculosis vaccine candidates with the aim of helping inform epidemiological mathematical modelling and health economic research. She currently runs the TIME model at KNCV.

Follow Puck on Twitter at: @PT_Pelzer.

Past group members
Arminder Deol

Arminder Deol

Former group member

Arminder worked on projects on ventilation and TB vaccine modelling. She left in 2021 to take up a position as a Senior Epidemiologist at CEPI.

Jamie Rudman

Jamie Rudman

Former group member

Jamie worked on the TIME project, supporting country-level TB policy decisions. He left the School in 2020, but continues to work as a consultant in TIME modelling.

Marek Lalli

Marek Lalli

Former group member

Marek worked on the TIME project, supporting country-level TB policy decisions. He left in 2019 to work for the World Health Organization as a Technical Officer in the TB Monitoring, Evaluation and Strategic Information Unit of the Global TB Programme.

Tina Sachs

Tina Sachs

Former group member

Tina was a TB Modelling group administrator. She left in 2018 to be a Project Manager at Stellenbosh University in South Africa.

Sean Cavany

Sean Cavany

Former group member

Sean did a PhD project with the group on TB contact tracing in the UK. He started a postdoc at the University of Notre Dame, USA in 2018.

Christina Albertson

Christina Albertson

Former group member

Christina was a TB Modelling group administrator. She moved to a project administrator role within the School.

Natascha Meunier

Natascha Meunier

Former group member

Natascha did a PhD on bovine TB. She went on to do a postdoc at the University of Edinburgh.

Olivia Ross-Hurt

Olivia Ross-Hurt

Former group member

Olivia was a TB Modelling group administrator. She went on to be a sports fitness trainer and social media star.

Pete Dodd

Pete Dodd

Former group member

Pete worked on TB/HIV modelling within the group. He left to join the School of Health and Related Research at Sheffield University.

Adrienne Keen

Adrienne Keen

Former group member

Adrienne did a PhD in TB modelling as part of the group. She moved on to a Senior Research Associate role at HEOR & Strategic Market Access (Greater Boston, USA).

Research
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Current areas of research 

Project Management
Christina Spencer, Miyo Hanazawa, Kristian Godfrey

Christina Spencer, Miyo Hanazawa, Kristian Godfrey

Our team oversees the financial, logistical and project management side of all the Group’s work.

Vaccines
Rebecca Clark, John Benest, Chathika Weerasuriya, Arminder Deol, Christinah Mukandavire, Puck Pelzer, Rebecca Harris, Roel B, Sophie Rhodes, Matt Quaife, Richard White

Rebecca Clark, John Benest, Chathika Weerasuriya, Arminder Deol, Christinah Mukandavire, Puck Pelzer, Rebecca Harris, Roel Bakker, Sophie Rhodes, Matt Quaife, Richard White

The potential epi and economic impact of new and repurposed TB vaccines is a core area of our group’s work.

Drug resistance
Martin Harker, Naomi Fuller, Chathika Weerasuriya, Finn McQuaid, Gwen Knight

Martin Harker, Naomi Fuller, Chathika Weerasuriya, Finn McQuaid, Gwen Knight

Our group has a number of projects considering the role of drug resistance in TB, including the impact of different interventions and mechanisms behind the development of resistance.

HIV
Katherine Horton, Nicky McCreesh, Tom Sumner, Rein Houben, Richard White

Katherine Horton, Nicky McCreesh, Tom Sumner, Rein Houben, Richard White

A number of projects in our group consider the role that HIV plays as a risk factor for TB disease development, and its effects on transmission and healthcare usage.

Methodology
John Benest, Danny Scarponi, Sophie Rhodes, Nicky McCreesh, Tom Sumner, Richard White

John Benest, Danny Scarponi, Sophie Rhodes, Nicky McCreesh, Tom Sumner, Richard White

Our group conducts research into new methods for use in infectious disease modelling, with focuses on methods for calibration and sensitivity analysis of complex models, exploration of structural uncertainty in models, and modelling methods to improve vaccine dose decision-making.

Natural history
Alexandra Richards, Nabila Shaik, Jon Emery, Katherine Horton, Nicola Foster, Emilia Vynnycky, Rein Houben

Alexandra Richards, Nabila Shaik, Jon Emery, Katherine Horton, Nicola Foster, Emilia Vynnycky, Rein Houben

A number of people in our group have an interest in understanding the natural history of Mtb infection and TB disease. The team combines modelling tools with historical and contemporary data to better understand various aspects of TB natural history, including self-clearance of Mtb infection, subclinical disease. 

This work is predominantly funded by an ERC Starting Grant project TBornotTB.

Economics
Martin Harker, Nicola Foster, Matthew Quaife, Chathika Weerasuriya

Martin Harker, Nicola Foster, Matthew Quaife, Chathika Weerasuriya

Our work covers a range of methodological and empirical health economic topics applied to TB treatment and prevention. We are currently working on the economics of TB vaccines, digital adherence technologies, multidrug resistant TB, and long-term morbidity and mortality post-TB.  

TB Modelling Guidance, Coordination and Strategy
Madeleine Clarkson, Finn McQuaid, Kristian Godfrey, Richard White

Madeleine Clarkson, Finn McQuaid, Kristian Godfrey, Richard White

Our group hosts the TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium (TB MAC). TB MAC to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of TB care and prevention policy and practice at global and country levels, and to contribute to a better understanding of the epidemiological and health system processes that generate TB outcomes.

Trials
Martin Harker, Naomi Fuller, Chathika Weerasuriya, Finn McQuaid, Gwen Knight

Martin Harker, Naomi Fuller, Chathika Weerasuriya, Finn McQuaid, Gwen Knight

We collaborate with groups at LSHTM and elsewhere to use mathematical models to help design and interpret the results of clinical trials and make projections of population level impacts of interventions.

Immunology
John Benest, Sophie Rhodes, Richard White

John Benest, Sophie Rhodes, Richard White

Our group uses within-host mathematical models to understand the dynamics of the immune response, predominantly, after vaccination.

Gender
Katherine Horton

Katherine Horton

Our group seeks to improve understanding of gender disparities in TB burden and care pathways and the impact of those disparities across the population.

Molecular Epidemiology
Emilia Vynnycky

Emilia Vynnycky

Our group aims to use mathematical modelling and molecular epidemiology to improve our understanding of the natural history and epidemiology of tuberculosis.

Transmission
Danny Scarponi, Nicky McCreesh

Danny Scarponi, Nicky McCreesh

Our group has an active programme of research into understanding Mycobacterium transmission patterns, including collecting and using social contact data, and research into transmission locations.

Social Determinants
Debora Pedrazzoli, Rein Houben

Debora Pedrazzoli, Rein Houben

Our group has an active interest in the role social and structural determinants, such as poverty and nutrition status, play in TB natural history, as well as care and prevention policies. Our work ranges from primary data analysis to global-level statistical modelling.

Past areas of research

Policy and planning tools

Between 2013 and 2020, group members led development and implementation of the TIME modelling suite, a group of modelling tools to support TB policy decisions in LMIC. Widely used and useful for countries including South Africa, Indonesia, Nigeria, Ghana and Zimbabwe, implementation of the tool was transferred to KNCV Tuberculosis Foundation. 

Contact person: Rein Houben 

 

Publications
Publications (Feed)
MCQUAID, CF; VASSALL, A; Cohen, T; Fiekert, K; WHITE, RG;
2021
International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, (2021).25 6 10.5588/ijtld.21.0148.
WEERASURIYA, CK; Harris, RC; QUAIFE, M; MCQUAID, CF; WHITE, RG; Gomez, GB;
2021
Vaccines, (2021).9 3 10.3390/vaccines9030245.
WEERASURIYA, CK; Harris, RC; MCQUAID, CF; BOZZANI, F; Ruan, Y; Li, R; Li, T; Rade, K; Rao, R; Ginsberg, AM; Gomez, GB; WHITE, RG;
2021
BMC Medicine, (2021).19 1 10.1186/s12916-021-01932-7.
MCQUAID, CF; FOSTER, N; QUAIFE, M; Levy, J; TADESSE, AW; Charalambous, S; Alacapa, JV; Deyanova, N; Mganga, A; HOUBEN, RM G J; FIELDING, KL;
2021
International journal of tuberculosis and lung disease, (2021).25 5 10.5588/ijtld.21.0070.
MCCREESH, N; Dlamini, V; Edwards, A; Olivier, S; Dayi, N; Dikgale, K; Nxumalo, S; Dreyer, J; BAISLEY, K; Siedner, MJ; WHITE, RG; Herbst, K; GRANT, AD; Harling, G;
2020
Harris, RC; SUMNER, T; KNIGHT, GM; Zhang, H; WHITE, RG;
2020
Science Translational Medicine, (2020).12 564 10.1126/scitranslmed.aax4607.
QUAIFE, M; VAN ZANDVOORT, K; Gimma, A; Shah, K; MCCREESH, N; PREM, K; Barasa, E; Mwanga, D; Kangwana, B; Pinchoff, J; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group,; EDMUNDS, WJ; JARVIS, CI; Austrian, K;
2020
BMC Med, (2020).18 1 10.1186/s12916-020-01779-4.
Frascella, B; RICHARDS, AS; Sossen, B; EMERY, JC; Odone, A; Law, I; Onozaki, I; Esmail, H; HOUBEN, RM G J;
2020
Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America (2020). 10.1093/cid/ciaa1402.
EMERY, JC; RUSSELL, TW; LIU, Y; HELLEWELL, J; PEARSON, CA; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group,; KNIGHT, GM; EGGO, RM; Kucharski, AJ; FUNK, S; FLASCHE, S; HOUBEN, RM;
2020
eLife, (2020).9, 10.7554/eLife.58699.
Training
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An Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling book cover

Members of the TB Modelling Group lead two general courses on infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine:

Group members also lead an introductory course – Introduction to Tuberculosis Modelling – aimed as an introduction to TB modelling. This course is usually run annually as a post-graduate course at the Union World Conference on Lung Health.

Emilia Vynnycky and Richard White, both members of the group, have also written an introductory infectious disease modelling textbook – An Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling – which has also been released as an ebook.