The TB Modelling Group at LSHTM is a multidisciplinary group of mathematical modellers and epidemiologists with varying backgrounds in physics, mathematics, biomedical sciences and biology.
The focus of our research is using mathematical and statistical models to better understand the natural history and epidemiology of TB and to improve the contribution of TB modelling to policy decisions and implementation.

Kristian
Godfrey
Manager
Kristian’s background is in project management and administration in international development settings, and his role within the group is the coordination and management of the group’s grants.
Follow Kristian on Twitter at: @kg_se10.

Christina Spencer
Programme Coordinator
In her role as Programme Coordinator, Christina provides administrative, logistical and financial management support for the group. Christina joined LSHTM in 2014 as a Programme Manager based at the London International Development Centre, and since that time has worked on a variety of projects within the School. Her earlier roles at Imperial College London and the MRC Clinical Trials Unit were also in programme management and administration.

Miyo
Hanazawa
Coordinator
Miyo works as a Programme Coordinator, providing administrative, logistical and financial management support for the group. Her background is in international development management and prior to joining LSHTM in 2017, she worked for various ODA projects in Latin America and Asia primarily in the field of higher education.

Richard
White
Professor
Richard's research focus is the mathematical and statistical modelling of the transmission and control of infectious diseases, particularly TB and HIV. He co-leads the TB modelling group and has a broad interest in the use of models to better understand the transmission, prevention, and care of TB. He has particular interests in the use of models to improve TB prevention and care decision making at global and country level, and to accelerate the development of new TB vaccines.
Follow Richard on Twitter at: @richardwhite321.

Rein
Houben
Professor
Rein is a TB epidemiologist and mathematical modeller. He co-leads the TB modelling group, where his primary research focus is the natural history of TB, in particular the dynamic spectrum of infection and disease as part of an ERC Starting Grant. In addition Rein has a wide interest in informing TB policy as well as understanding the social and structural determinants of TB. Follow Rein on Twitter at: @Rein_Houben.

Gwen
Knight
Associate Professor
Gwen's research focuses on the spread of antibiotic resistance: by understanding where it comes from can we design novel methods for control? She has worked on estimating the fitness costs of resistance in TB, the impact of vaccination and estimates of the latent burden of drug-resistant TB infection.
Follow Gwen on Twitter at: @gmknght.

Emilia
Vynnycky
Associate Professor
Emilia works at Public Health England (PHE) and has an affiliation with LSHTM. She works on modelling infectious diseases with a focus on rubella and TB. Her current TB research interest includes the effect of diagnstic delays.

Finn
McQuaid
Assistant Professor
Finn is interested in modelling drug resistant TB, the impact of COVID-19 on TB and treatment adherence technology. He is also the secretariat epidemiologist for the TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium (TB MAC). His background is in maths.
Follow Finn on Twitter at: @cfmcquaid.

Tom
Sumner
Assistant Professor
Tom is interested in using models to predict and understand the impact of interventions. His current work is focused on the use of preventive therapy in high HIV prevalence settings.
Follow Tom on Twitter at: @tomsumner49.

Nicky
McCreesh
Assistant Professor
Nicky is interested in understanding Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission patterns, and in using contact data to develop a better understanding of potential Mtb transmission sites and to inform intervention strategies. She also works on the calibration of complex models.

Christinah
Mukandavire
Assistant Professor
Christinah is interested in development and analysis of mathematical models to understand disease transmission dynamics,outbreaks, and evaluating the potential impact of intervention strategies. She is currently working on estimating the health impact of new Tuberculosis vaccines in countries with high HIV burden.
Follow Christinah on Twitter at: @cmukandavire.

Katherine
Horton
Assistant Professor
Katherine is an epidemiologist and mathematical modeller interested understanding and addressing disparities that increase TB burden and limit access to diagnosis and treatment.
Follow Katharine on Twitter at: @kc_horton.

Kiesha
Prem
Assistant Professor
Kiesha is an infectious disease modeller at LSHTM and the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health at the National University of Singapore. She collaborates closely with the national TB programme in Cambodia and Singapore to evaluate the health impact and cost-effectiveness of TB active case-finding strategies. Follow Kiesha on Twitter at: @kiesha_prem.

Rebecca
Harris
Honorary Assistant Professor
Rebecca is a vaccine epidemiologist and mathematical modeller. Her research focusses on modelling to inform development and implementation of new and existing TB vaccines, with the goal of informing development of candidates with the greatest potential for future public health impact. Other areas of interest have included modelling the impact of COVID-19 on TB, and development and evaluation of an app (ePAL) for spatial mapping of patients in highly populous low-income settings without addresses.
Follow Rebecca on Twitter at: @RebeccaCHarris.

Matthew Quaife
Honorary Assistant Professor
Matt is a health economist, interested in combining health economics and infectious disease modelling to understand and solve public health problems. He is currently working on TB modelling studies estimating the impact, cost-effectiveness, and equity impact of TB vaccines and digital adherence technologies.
Follow Matthew on Twitter at: @matthew_quaife.

Nicola
Foster
Research Fellow
Nicola's research is focused on the measurement and analysis of the social determinants of tuberculosis. Her background is in pharmacy, public health and health economics.
Follow Nicola on Twitter at: @nicola_c_foster.

Jon Emery
Research Fellow
Jon is a mathematical modeller of infectious diseases. His research focuses on using modelling methods to infer the underlying natural history of TB from empirical data, before using the results to inform intervention strategies designed to prevent progression to TB disease.
Follow Jon on Twitter at: @JonCEmery.

Danny
Scarponi
Research Fellow
Danny is interested on the calibration of complex individual-based stochastic models. In particular, he is involved in a project to develop a history matching and model emulation R package. He also works with social contact data, with the aim of understanding Mtb transmission patterns.
Follow Danny on Twitter at: @DannyScarponi.

Debora
Pedrazzoli
Research Fellow
Debora is a TB epidemiologist and health economist currently based at the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) at the World Health Organization. Her primary research interest is in expanding the evidence base on the socioeconomic determinants of TB, through the evaluation of mechanisms to increase health care coverage, financial and social protection among people with TB.

Lara Gosce
Research Fellow
Lara is a mathematical modeller of infectious diseases, her main research interest is studying transmission mechanisms and population dynamics. She mostly works on TB modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis.

Chathika Weerasuriya
Research Degree Student
Chathika focuses on the probable impact of new TB vaccines, their cost-effectiveness and their impact of multi-drug resistance. His background is in medicine and infectious disease epidemiology.
Follow Chathika on Twitter at: @cweerasuriya.

Madeleine Clarkson
Research Assistant
Madeleine is part of the TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium secatariate. In her role she is responsible for contributing to the ongoing projects, research and events organised by the Consortium. Her research interests are in modelling social networks of drug resistance.
Follow Madeleine on Twitter at: @madeleineclrksn.

Alexandra
Richards
Research Fellow
Alex is a research degree student with an interest in modelling the natural history of tuberculosis with a focus on subclinical disease. Her background is in maths, physics, and epidemiology.
Follow Alex on Twitter at: @alexsrichards.

Rebecca
Clark
Research Degree Student
Rebecca is a research degree student interested in modelling tuberculosis vaccine implementation strategies both nationally and subnationally. Her background is in math, statistics, and epidemiology.
Follow Rebecca on Twitter at: @ra_clark18.

Martin
Harker
Research Degree Student
Martin is a health economist and research degree student. He is looking at modelling the potential effectiveness of preventive therapies for multidrug-resistant TB. His background is in biological sciences, maths and public health.

Naomi
Fuller
Research Degree Student
Naomi is a research degree student at LSHTM looking at using mathematical models built with parameters from experiments (UCL) to improve our understanding of drug resistant TB. Her background is in physics.
Follow Naomi on Twitter at: @naomimfuller.

Alvaro Schwalb
Research Degree Student
Alvaro is a student at LSHTM working on re-evaluating epidemiological metrics of tuberculosis burden. His background is in medicine and epidemiology. Follow Alvaro on Twitter at: @aschwalbc.

Puck Pelzer
Infectious Disease Epidemiologist
Puck is an infectious disease epidemiologist specializing in TB and vaccines. At LSHTM she explores implementation strategies for late-stage tuberculosis vaccine candidates with the aim of helping inform epidemiological mathematical modelling and health economic research. She currently runs the TIME model at KNCV.
Follow Puck on Twitter at: @PT_Pelzer.

Christina Albertson
Former group member
Christina was a TB Modelling group administrator. She moved to a project administrator role within the School.

John Benest
Former group member
John did a PhD with the group, researching the application of PK/PD methods to vaccine dose optimisation

Sean Cavany
Former group member
Sean did a PhD project with the group on TB contact tracing in the UK. He started a postdoc at the University of Notre Dame, USA in 2018.

Arminder Deol
Former group member
Arminder worked on projects on ventilation and TB vaccine modelling. She left in 2021 to take up a position as a Senior Epidemiologist at CEPI.

Pete Dodd
Former group member
Pete worked on TB/HIV modelling within the group. He left to join the School of Health and Related Research at Sheffield University.

Marek Lalli
Former group member
Marek worked on the TIME project, supporting country-level TB policy decisions. He left in 2019 to work for the World Health Organization as a Technical Officer in the TB Monitoring, Evaluation and Strategic Information Unit of the Global TB Programme.

Adrienne Keen
Former group member
Adrienne did a PhD in TB modelling as part of the group. She moved on to a Senior Research Associate role at HEOR & Strategic Market Access (Greater Boston, USA).

Natascha Meunier
Former group member
Natascha did a PhD on bovine TB. She went on to do a postdoc at the University of Edinburgh.

Sophie Rhodes
Former group member
Sophie worked on mathematical modelling to inform vaccine dosing decisions. She left the group in 2021 and now works for Certara as a pharmacometric consultant.

Olivia Ross-Hurt
Former group member
Olivia was a TB Modelling group administrator. She went on to be a sports fitness trainer and social media star.

Jamie Rudman
Former group member
Jamie worked on the TIME project, supporting country-level TB policy decisions. He left the School in 2020, but continues to work as a consultant in TIME modelling.

Tina Sachs
Former group member
Tina was a TB Modelling group administrator. She left in 2018 to be a Project Manager at Stellenbosh University in South Africa.

Nabila
Shaikh
Research Assistant
Nabila worked on multiple projects within the group ranging from subclinical disease research to country level TB epidemiology. She left the group in 2021 to work on the COVID-19 medical evidence generation team at Sanofi.
Current areas of research
- Project Management
-
Christina Spencer, Miyo Hanazawa, Kristian Godfrey
Our team oversees the financial, logistical and project management side of all the Group’s work.
- Vaccines
-
Rebecca Clark, John Benest, Chathika Weerasuriya, Arminder Deol, Christinah Mukandavire, Puck Pelzer, Rebecca Harris, Roel Bakker, Sophie Rhodes, Matt Quaife, Richard White
The potential epi and economic impact of new and repurposed TB vaccines is a core area of our group’s work.
- Drug resistance
-
Martin Harker, Naomi Fuller, Chathika Weerasuriya, Finn McQuaid, Gwen Knight
Our group has a number of projects considering the role of drug resistance in TB, including the impact of different interventions and mechanisms behind the development of resistance.
- HIV
-
Katherine Horton, Nicky McCreesh, Tom Sumner, Rein Houben, Richard White
A number of projects in our group consider the role that HIV plays as a risk factor for TB disease development, and its effects on transmission and healthcare usage.
- Methodology
-
John Benest, Danny Scarponi, Sophie Rhodes, Nicky McCreesh, Tom Sumner, Richard White
Our group conducts research into new methods for use in infectious disease modelling, with focuses on methods for calibration and sensitivity analysis of complex models, exploration of structural uncertainty in models, and modelling methods to improve vaccine dose decision-making.
- Natural history
-
Alvaro Schwalb, Alexandra Richards, Nabila Shaik, Jon Emery, Katherine Horton, Nicola Foster, Emilia Vynnycky, Rein Houben
A number of people in our group have an interest in understanding the natural history of Mtb infection and TB disease. The team combines modelling tools with historical and contemporary data to better understand various aspects of TB natural history, including self-clearance of Mtb infection, subclinical disease.
This work is predominantly funded by an ERC Starting Grant project TBornotTB.
- Economics
-
Martin Harker, Chathika Weerasuriya, Lara Gosce, Nicola Foster, Matthew Quaife
Our work covers a range of methodological and empirical health economic topics applied to TB treatment and prevention. We are currently working on the economics of TB vaccines, digital adherence technologies, multidrug resistant TB, and long-term morbidity and mortality post-TB.
- TB Modelling Guidance, Coordination and Strategy
-
Madeleine Clarkson, Finn McQuaid, Kristian Godfrey, Richard White
Our group hosts the TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium (TB MAC). TB MAC to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of TB care and prevention policy and practice at global and country levels, and to contribute to a better understanding of the epidemiological and health system processes that generate TB outcomes.
- Trials
-
Martin Harker, Naomi Fuller, Chathika Weerasuriya, Lara Gosce, Finn McQuaid, Gwen Knight
We collaborate with groups at LSHTM and elsewhere to use mathematical models to help design and interpret the results of clinical trials and make projections of population level impacts of interventions.
- Immunology
-
John Benest, Sophie Rhodes, Richard White
Our group uses within-host mathematical models to understand the dynamics of the immune response, predominantly, after vaccination.
- Gender
-
Alex Richards, Katherine Horton
Our group seeks to improve understanding of gender disparities in TB burden and care pathways and the impact of those disparities across the population.
- Molecular Epidemiology
-
Emilia Vynnycky
Our group aims to use mathematical modelling and molecular epidemiology to improve our understanding of the natural history and epidemiology of tuberculosis.
- Transmission
-
Danny Scarponi, Lara Gosce, Nicky McCreesh
Our group has an active programme of research into understanding Mycobacterium transmission patterns, including collecting and using social contact data, and research into transmission locations.
- Social Determinants
-
Alvaro Schwalb, Debora Pedrazzoli, Rein Houben
Our group has an active interest in the role social and structural determinants, such as poverty and nutrition status, play in TB natural history, as well as care and prevention policies. Our work ranges from primary data analysis to global-level statistical modelling.
- Burden estimation
-
Alvaro Schwalb, Finn McQuaid, Rein Houben, Richard White
Our group takes an active role in both the production, and support of production by others, of estimates of various measures of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and TB disease burden.
Past areas of research
- Policy and planning tools
-
Between 2013 and 2020, group members led development and implementation of the TIME modelling suite, a group of modelling tools to support TB policy decisions in LMIC. Widely used and useful for countries including South Africa, Indonesia, Nigeria, Ghana and Zimbabwe, implementation of the tool was transferred to KNCV Tuberculosis Foundation.
Contact person: Rein Houben
Members of the TB Modelling Group lead two general courses on infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine:
- MSc module – Modelling and the Dynamics of Infectious Diseases
- Two-week summer short course – An Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling and Its Applications
Group members also lead an introductory course – Introduction to Tuberculosis Modelling – aimed as an introduction to TB modelling. This course is usually run annually as a post-graduate course at the Union World Conference on Lung Health.
Emilia Vynnycky and Richard White, both members of the group, have also written an introductory infectious disease modelling textbook – An Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling – which has also been released as an ebook.
LSHTM Centres
Collaborators
- Aurum Institute
- Australian Tuberculosis Modelling Network (AuTuMN)
- Avenir Health
- Global Good
- The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria
- HIV Modelling Consortium
- Institute for Disease Modelling (IDM)
- Johns Hopkins School of Public Health (JHSPH)
- Lancaster University
- KNCV Tuberculosis Foundation
- Malawi-Liverpool-Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Programme
- Public Health England (PHE)
- Royal Veterinary College (RVC)
- Stellenbosch University Desmond Tutu TB Centre
- Stop TB Partnership
- University College London (UCL)
- University of Cape Town (UCT)
- World Health Organization Global TB Programme
- Yale School of Public Health