The TB Modelling Group at LSHTM is a multidisciplinary group of mathematical modellers and epidemiologists with varying backgrounds in physics, mathematics, biomedical sciences and biology.
The focus of our research is using mathematical and statistical models to better understand the natural history and epidemiology of TB and to improve the contribution of TB modelling to policy decisions and implementation.
In her role as Programme Coordinator, Christina provides administrative, logistical and financial management support for the group. Christina joined LSHTM in 2014 as a Programme Manager based at the London International Development Centre, and since that time has worked on a variety of projects within the School. Her earlier roles at Imperial College London and the MRC Clinical Trials Unit were also in programme management and administration.
Miyo works as a Programme Coordinator, providing administrative, logistical and financial management support for the group. Her background is in international development management and prior to joining LSHTM in 2017, she worked for various ODA projects in Latin America and Asia primarily in the field of higher education.
Richard's research focus is the mathematical and statistical modelling of the transmission and control of infectious diseases, particularly TB and HIV. He co-leads the TB modelling group and has a broad interest in the use of models to better understand the transmission, prevention, and care of TB. He has particular interests in the use of models to improve TB prevention and care decision making at global and country level, and to accelerate the development of new TB vaccines.
Follow Richard on Twitter at: @richardwhite321.
Rein is a TB epidemiologist and mathematical modeller. He co-leads the TB modelling group, where his primary research focus is the natural history of TB, in particular the dynamic spectrum of infection and disease as part of an ERC Starting Grant. In addition Rein has a wide interest in informing TB policy as well as understanding the social and structural determinants of TB.
Follow Rein on Twitter at: @Rein_Houben.
Gwen's research focuses on the spread of antibiotic resistance: by understanding where it comes from can we design novel methods for control? She has worked on estimating the fitness costs of resistance in TB, the impact of vaccination and estimates of the latent burden of drug-resistant TB infection.
Follow Gwen on Twitter at: @gmknght.
Emilia works at Public Health England (PHE) and has an affiliation with LSHTM. She works on modelling infectious diseases with a focus on rubella and TB. Her current TB research interest includes the effect of diagnstic delays.
Finn is interested in modelling drug resistant TB, the impact of COVID-19 on TB and treatment adherence technology. He is also the secretariat epidemiologist for the TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium (TB MAC). His background is in maths.
Follow Finn on Twitter at: @cfmcquaid.
Nicky is interested in understanding Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission patterns, and in using contact data to develop a better understanding of potential Mtb transmission sites and to inform intervention strategies. She also works on the calibration of complex models.
Christinah is interested in development and analysis of mathematical models to understand disease transmission dynamics,outbreaks, and evaluating the potential impact of intervention strategies. She is currently working on estimating the health impact of new Tuberculosis vaccines in countries with high HIV burden.
Follow Christinah on Twitter at: @cmukandavire.
Matt is a health economist, interested in combining health economics and infectious disease modelling to understand and solve public health problems. He is currently working on TB modelling studies estimating the impact, cost-effectiveness, and equity impact of TB vaccines and digital adherence technologies.
Follow Matthew on Twitter at: @matthew_quaife.
Arminder has a background in operational research with a decade of experience in neglected tropical diseases, and is an epidemiologist and mathematical modeler. She has a strong interest in health in low and middle income countries (LMICs), which led her to TB, and is currently focussed on bridging TB vaccine modelling and epidemiology to inform policy at national and global levels.
Rebecca is a vaccine epidemiologist and mathematical modeller. Her research focusses on modelling to inform development and implementation of new and existing TB vaccines, with the goal of informing development of candidates with the greatest potential for future public health impact. Other areas of interest have included modelling the impact of COVID-19 on TB, and development and evaluation of an app (ePAL) for spatial mapping of patients in highly populous low-income settings without addresses.
Follow Rebecca on Twitter at: @RebeccaCHarris.
Sophie research is focussed on translating mathematical modelling methods used in drug development for dose-finding, to vaccine development. She has used these methods to predict optimal dose for TB and Covid-19. Her background is in mathematics.
Follow Sophie on Twitter at: @sophiejrhodes.
Jon is a mathematical modeller of infectious diseases. His research focuses on using modelling methods to infer the underlying natural history of TB from empirical data, before using the results to inform intervention strategies designed to prevent progression to TB disease.
Follow Jon on Twitter at: @JonCEmery.
Danny is interested on the calibration of complex individual-based stochastic models. In particular, he is involved in a project to develop a history matching and model emulation R package. He also works with social contact data, with the aim of understanding Mtb transmission patterns.
Follow Danny on Twitter at: @DannyScarponi.
Kiesha is an infectious disease modeller at LSHTM and the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health at the National University of Singapore. She collaborates closely with the national TB programme in Cambodia and Singapore to evaluate the health impact and cost-effectiveness of TB active case-finding strategies.
Follow Kiesha on Twitter at: @kiesha_prem.
Debora is a TB epidemiologist and health economist currently based at the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) at the World Health Organization. Her primary research interest is in expanding the evidence base on the socioeconomic determinants of TB, through the evaluation of mechanisms to increase health care coverage, financial and social protection among people with TB.
Madeleine is part of the TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium secatariate. In her role she is responsible for contributing to the ongoing projects, research and events organised by the Consortium. Her research interests are in modelling social networks of drug resistance.
Follow Madeleine on Twitter at: @madeleineclrksn.
Research Degree Student
Martin is a health economist and first year research degree student. He is looking at modelling the potential effectiveness of preventive therapies for multidrug-resistant TB. His background is in biological sciences, maths and public health.
John is a 3rd year research degree student with a MMath from Keele University. He is presently researching the application of PK/PD methods to vaccine dose optimisation. He is mainly focused on the use of statistical and mechanistic methods to describe the relationships between dose-response and dose-safety.
Follow John on Twitter at: @johebe3.
Infectious Disease Epidemiologist
Puck is an infectious disease epidemiologist specializing in TB and vaccines. At LSHTM she explores implementation strategies for late-stage tuberculosis vaccine candidates with the aim of helping inform epidemiological mathematical modelling and health economic research. She currently runs the TIME model at KNCV.
Follow Puck on Twitter at: @PT_Pelzer.
Current areas of research
- Project Management
Christina Spencer, Miyo Hanazawa, Kristian Godfrey
Our team oversees the financial, logistical and project management side of all the Group’s work.
Rebecca Clark, John Benest, Chathika Weerasuriya, Arminder Deol, Christinah Mukandavire, Puck Pelzer, Rebecca Harris, Roel Bakker, Sophie Rhodes, Matt Quaife, Richard White
The potential epi and economic impact of new and repurposed TB vaccines is a core area of our group’s work.
- Drug resistance
Martin Harker, Naomi Fuller, Chathika Weerasuriya, Finn McQuaid, Gwen Knight
Our group has a number of projects considering the role of drug resistance in TB, including the impact of different interventions and mechanisms behind the development of resistance.
Katherine Horton, Nicky McCreesh, Tom Sumner, Rein Houben, Richard White
A number of projects in our group consider the role that HIV plays as a risk factor for TB disease development, and its effects on transmission and healthcare usage.
John Benest, Danny Scarponi, Sophie Rhodes, Nicky McCreesh, Tom Sumner, Richard White
Our group conducts research into new methods for use in infectious disease modelling, with focuses on methods for calibration and sensitivity analysis of complex models, exploration of structural uncertainty in models, and modelling methods to improve vaccine dose decision-making.
- Natural history
Alexandra Richards, Nabila Shaik, Jon Emery, Katherine Horton, Nicola Foster, Emilia Vynnycky, Rein Houben
A number of people in our group have an interest in understanding the natural history of Mtb infection and TB disease. The team combines modelling tools with historical and contemporary data to better understand various aspects of TB natural history, including self-clearance of Mtb infection, subclinical disease.
This work is predominantly funded by an ERC Starting Grant project TBornotTB.
Martin Harker, Nicola Foster, Matthew Quaife, Chathika Weerasuriya
Our work covers a range of methodological and empirical health economic topics applied to TB treatment and prevention. We are currently working on the economics of TB vaccines, digital adherence technologies, multidrug resistant TB, and long-term morbidity and mortality post-TB.
- TB Modelling Guidance, Coordination and Strategy
Madeleine Clarkson, Finn McQuaid, Kristian Godfrey, Richard White
Our group hosts the TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium (TB MAC). TB MAC to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of TB care and prevention policy and practice at global and country levels, and to contribute to a better understanding of the epidemiological and health system processes that generate TB outcomes.
Martin Harker, Naomi Fuller, Chathika Weerasuriya, Finn McQuaid, Gwen Knight
We collaborate with groups at LSHTM and elsewhere to use mathematical models to help design and interpret the results of clinical trials and make projections of population level impacts of interventions.
John Benest, Sophie Rhodes, Richard White
Our group uses within-host mathematical models to understand the dynamics of the immune response, predominantly, after vaccination.
Our group seeks to improve understanding of gender disparities in TB burden and care pathways and the impact of those disparities across the population.
- Molecular Epidemiology
Our group aims to use mathematical modelling and molecular epidemiology to improve our understanding of the natural history and epidemiology of tuberculosis.
Danny Scarponi, Nicky McCreesh
Our group has an active programme of research into understanding Mycobacterium transmission patterns, including collecting and using social contact data, and research into transmission locations.
- Social Determinants
Debora Pedrazzoli, Rein Houben
Our group has an active interest in the role social and structural determinants, such as poverty and nutrition status, play in TB natural history, as well as care and prevention policies. Our work ranges from primary data analysis to global-level statistical modelling.
Past areas of research
- Policy and planning tools
Between 2013 and 2020, group members led development and implementation of the TIME modelling suite, a group of modelling tools to support TB policy decisions in LMIC. Widely used and useful for countries including South Africa, Indonesia, Nigeria, Ghana and Zimbabwe, implementation of the tool was transferred to KNCV Tuberculosis Foundation.
Contact person: Rein Houben
Members of the TB Modelling Group lead two general courses on infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine:
- MSc module – Modelling and the Dynamics of Infectious Diseases
- Two-week summer short course – An Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling and Its Applications
Group members also lead an introductory course – Introduction to Tuberculosis Modelling – aimed as an introduction to TB modelling. This course is usually run annually as a post-graduate course at the Union World Conference on Lung Health.
Emilia Vynnycky and Richard White, both members of the group, have also written an introductory infectious disease modelling textbook – An Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling – which has also been released as an ebook.
- Aurum Institute
- Australian Tuberculosis Modelling Network (AuTuMN)
- Avenir Health
- Global Good
- The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria
- HIV Modelling Consortium
- Institute for Disease Modelling (IDM)
- Johns Hopkins School of Public Health (JHSPH)
- Lancaster University
- KNCV Tuberculosis Foundation
- Malawi-Liverpool-Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Programme
- Public Health England (PHE)
- Royal Veterinary College (RVC)
- Stellenbosch University Desmond Tutu TB Centre
- Stop TB Partnership
- University College London (UCL)
- University of Cape Town (UCT)
- World Health Organization Global TB Programme
- Yale School of Public Health