London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

New research analysing nearly 30 years of data found that heat prevention plans across Europe reduced deaths from extreme heat by an estimated 25%, saving over 14,000 lives.

The study, published in Environmental Research Letters, revealed that heat prevention plans in the UK reduced deaths from extreme heat by approximately 34% after their introduction. England was also found to have the most developed heatwave prevention plan among the countries studied.

Led by the Czech University of Life Sciences (CZU) and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), the research team analysed daily temperature and mortality data from 102 locations in 14 European countries from 1990-2019 to assess how heat-related mortality changed after the introduction of national and regional heat prevention plans.

Heat prevention plans typically include early warning systems, public communication, protection of vulnerable populations and adaptations in healthcare services.

The study also looked at the different characteristics included in each country’s heat prevention plans, but did not find conclusive evidence on whether more developed prevention plans had a stronger protective effect.

Of the 14 countries included, the largest relative reductions in heat-related mortality were observed in Finland, Switzerland, Netherlands and the UK. The least effective measures were found in Southern Europe, particularly Portugal, Italy and Spain.

In absolute terms, the greatest numbers of lives saved from heat prevention plans were in Serbia (3597), Romania (1997), Switzerland (1675) and the UK (1674) during the study period.

Antonio Gasparrini, Professor of Biostatistics at LSHTM and senior author on the study, said: “Our study, based on state-of-the-art methods and a large multi-country database, provides the strongest evidence so far about the effectiveness of heat prevention plans in reducing health impacts.”

Dr Aleš Urban, lead author and Research Scientist at CZU said: “Our results provide clear evidence that heat prevention plans are effective public health tools. On average, we observed a reduction of more than 25% in excess mortality during extreme heat after these plans were implemented.”

The authors emphasise the public health relevance of these findings, showing that well-designed prevention measures can substantially reduce avoidable deaths during periods of extreme heat. The results provide evidence to inform future public health planning and support the integration of heat prevention into wider health protection strategies.

Dr Veronika Huber, co-author and researcher at the Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), said: “With climate change expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, our findings highlight the importance of making heat prevention plans a core component of climate adaptation strategies across Europe.”

The researchers note that this study couldn’t highlight benefits from specific parts of heat prevention plans, such as knowing the specific impact of heat alerts. The methods also did not record reductions in morbidity (non-fatal medical problems using measures like hospitalisation data). Follow-up work from the researchers will analyse prevention plans in greater detail to plug these gaps of knowledge.

Dr Malcolm N Mistry, Assistant Professor at LSHTM and co-author on the paper, said: “While mitigation remains the priority to limit future global warming, our study demonstrates that adaptation through heat prevention plans is an important mechanism that can significantly buffer local populations against the lethal risks of heat on health.”

This research was based on international collaboration with experts from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, COST Action PROCLIAS, and HORIZON EU project CROSSEU.

Publication

Urban A et al. The effectiveness of heat prevention plans in reducing heat-related mortality across Europe. Environmental Research Letters. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae2775