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Cross-sectional average length of life childless: An alternative index to study first birth trends

Dr Ryohei Mogi, University of Oxford
Dr Ryohei Mogi, University of Oxford

Increases in the average age at first birth and in the proportion of women remaining childless have extended the total number of years that women spend childless during their reproductive lifetime in several countries. To quantify the number of years that reproductive-age women live without children, we introduce the cross-sectional average length of life childless (CALC). This measure includes all the age-specific first-birth information available for the cohorts present at time t; it is a period measure based on cohort data.  

Using the Human Fertility Database, CALC is calculated for the year 2015 for all countries with long enough histories of fertility available. Results show that women in the majority of the studied countries spend, on average, more than half of their reproductive lives childless. Furthermore, the difference between CALCs in two countries can be decomposed to give a clear visualisation of how each cohort contributes to the difference in the duration of the length of childless life in those populations. 

Speaker 

Dr Ryohei Mogi, Department of Sociology, the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, and Nuffield College at University of Oxford  

Ryohei Mogi is a demographer and seeks to understand the fertility decline and family change by developing alternative measures and analysing the key factors of such decline and change and its consequences. He particularly focuses on childlessness, mate search, and partnership formation. Ryohei received his PhD in Demography from Autonomous University of Barcelona and Centre for Demographic Studies in 2020 and European Research Certificate in Demography from the European Doctoral School of Demography at Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and La Sapienza University of Rome. 

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