series event

Signatures of transmission and importation in tuberculosis cluster size data in England


Tuberculosis (TB) rates in England have decreased from 16 cases per 100,000 persons in 2011 to 11 cases per 100,000 persons in 2015. Together with falling rates in UK-born children and a reduction in cases with matching strain types, this suggests a reduction in local transmission risk. However, such indicators do not provide a measure of the number of cases that could be prevented by controlling transmission. In England, approximately 50% of TB cases are associated with a genotype. We are using these strain-typing data, together with a mathematical model of TB cluster generation, to infer local transmission parameters and establish the potential impact of transmission-focused control measures.



Ellen Brooks Pollock (Bristol University): cmmid@seminar