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Current issues in impact evaluation

Evaluating the effects of complex health or social interventions or policies on health has evolved in the past years, with increased availability of new data and methods, use of logic models and theory of change to better understand the causal mechanisms behind expected and unexpected effects, and the use of direct acyclic graphs to better inform the statistical analysis. 

Some of the current issues in impact evaluation can be seen below:

Use of routinely collected data in evaluations

Historically, most of the evidence regarding the effect of interventions came from  randomized controlled trials. However, there is an increase in the availability of already collected data and large-scale data (sometimes called “Big data”), and these data are often used to evaluate the effects of medical, public health and social interventions on health.

Because data have been previously collected, the use of quasi-experimental methods is necessary. Importantly, the use of large sample sizes requires the use of rigorous research approaches ideally guided by pre-established, published, theories of changes or logic models and analytical frameworks to avoid spurious statistical correlations.

In addition, research using large-scale routinely collected data should consider challenges such as representativeness (e.g., poor representation of ethnic minorities in the UK Biobank), potential large proportions of missing data, unmeasured confounding, and others. When reporting research using routinely collected data, RECORD (REporting of studies Conducted using Observational Routinely-collected Data) is used.

Target trial emulation

There is growing interest in the use of observational research to mimic a randomised trial using a Target trial emulation framework.

In this proposed design from Hernán et al (2022), a protocol with a detailed plan of analysis is designed to ensure that all the key elements of a clinical trial are embraced to generate a causal estimation (eligibility criteria, treatment strategies, treatment assignment, the start and end of follow-up, outcomes, causal contrasts). Following protocol specification, the components of the protocol are then emulated using observational data. 

Triangulation of methods for causal inference

In research that uses observational data, the triangulation of findings from different methodological approaches is being increasingly used to strengthen causal claims. The different approaches are often quasi-experimental designs or methods that can deal with different sources of bias or that have different assumptions (e.g., absence of unmeasured confounding).

The use of triangulation suggests that if we obtained similar or same directional effect estimates using different methods, we are more certain about our causal effects.  This is especially important when assessing the effects of interventions on health, where few studies can inform policy changes.

Bias assessment

There has been increased interest in how to calculate and report non-biased estimations after accounting for selection bias, misclassification and unmeasured or uncontrolled confounding.  Using methods to estimate unbiased measures for the effects of complex interventions should be considered as good practices in research.