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Macro-economic modelling of health and health policy

Macro-economic modelling of health and health policy

Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling of health, health policy or broader policy with implications for health

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About

We apply a variety of models – from comparative static applications to fully integrated health-demographic-macroeconomic frameworks – to diseases, food and agriculture, the environment and industry.

Team

Macroeconomic modelling applications often involve multi-disciplinary teams and multiple individuals with differing skillsets.

Projects

We pioneered the full integration of CGE with epidemiological and demographic models, and our work now includes applications to malaria, diet and tuberculosis.

About
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Researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine have undertaken macroeconomic modelling since 2007. Our work consists primarily of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling of health, health policy or broader policy interventions which have implications for health.

Our full integration of CGE models with epidemiological and demographic models was pioneering when it was first completed (in 2013) and, to our knowledge, our integrated models (which now include applications to malaria, diet and a current TB focussed project) are still the only fully integrated health-demographic-CGE models.

Over the years, we have worked on:

  • infectious disease applications including SARS and influenza, antimicrobial resistance, malaria, tuberculosis and, most recently, Covid-19
  • non-communicable disease applications have covered the areas of Alzheimer's disease and dementia
  • the implications of non-communicable diseases and related policies for agriculture, food, the environment and trade, greenhouse gas reduction strategies with health co-benefits
  • an evaluation of the UK Soft Drinks Industry Levy
  • non-disease specific macroeconomic analyses concerning healthcare financing and age-specific labour supply analyses

The models we apply vary in complexity from comparative static (single time point) health-focussed applications to dynamic fully integrated health-demographic-macroeconomic frameworks and also include models with sub-modules for analysis of nutritional, land use and greenhouse gas emissions.

Our macroeconomic modelling work is not restricted to any particular country or region. previous country applications include

  • Asia and the Pacific: Vietnam, China, Thailand, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Myanmar
  • Europe: UK, France, Belgium, Germany, Netherlands, Poland, Turkey
  • Latin America and Caribbean: Argentina, Bolivia, and Colombia
  • Middle East and Northern Africa: Morocco
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA): Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania
Team

Macroeconomic modelling applications often involve multi-disciplinary teams and multiple individuals with differing skillsets have been involved in our research, in addition to our core team.

Team Block

Marcus
Keogh-Brown

Associate Professor

Henning
Tarp Jensen

Associate Professor

Richard Smith

Projects
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Marcus Keogh-Brown and Henning Tarp Jensen co-lead current research projects, which include:

  • Macroeconomic policy analysis of the Covid-19 outbreak in multiple EU countries
  • Evaluation of the UK Soft Drinks Industry Levy
  • Development of a fully integrated TB-Macroeconomic-Demographic model of India
  • Development of a macroeconomic model of Myanmar with a detailed age-specific labour force characterisation