London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

Around 5.9 million children worldwide died before reaching the age of five, including 2.7 million newborns, according to 2015 estimates, published in The Lancet. Globally, more than 4 million fewer child deaths occurred in 2015 than in 2000, mainly thanks to reductions in deaths from pneumonia, diarrhoea, malaria, death during birth and measles. However, progress on reducing newborn deaths (in the first 28 days) has been slower meaning that as a whole the world failed to reach the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target of reducing child deaths by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015.

The study provides the most up-to-date figures for deaths of children under five years old and includes data for all 194 countries that are World Health Organization states. The 2015 figures highlight the inequality in child deaths around the world with the national rates of child death ranging from 1.9 to 155.1 deaths per 1,000 births, and 60.4% (3.6 million) of all deaths occurring in 10 countries.

Researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine led the estimates for newborn deaths. Although the number of newborn deaths fell from 3.9 million in 2000 to 2.7 million in 2015, progress has been slower than the improvements in survival for one month to five year olds. This resulted in the proportion of newborn deaths increasing from 39% in 2000 to 45% in 2015. If newborn deaths had reduced at the same rate as that of children aged between one month and five years old the MDG target to reduce child deaths by two-thirds between 1990 to 2015 might have been reached.

Study author, Professor Joy Lawn from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said: "As progress is made in reducing under five deaths, our findings show that newborns continue to be left behind. Newborn babies now make up nearly half of the millions of children that tragically die before reaching their fifth birthday. This highlights just how precarious the first month of life is, and it is vital we continue to ensure that newborn survival is high on the global policy agenda."

Progress on under five child deaths since 2000 has largely been due to reductions in the numbers of deaths from pneumonia, diarrhoea, malaria, measles and deaths during birth - each reduced by more than 30% worldwide between 2000 and 2015. However, some of these still remain leading causes of deaths. Globally in 2015, the leading causes of death for children under five years old were complications due to premature birth (17.8%, 1.1 million deaths), pneumonia (15.5%, 0.9 million deaths) and death during birth (11.6%, 0.7 million deaths).

Countries with the highest rates of child death (100 or more deaths per 1,000 births) include Angola, Central African Republic, Chad, Mali, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Somalia. In these countries pneumonia, malaria and diarrhoea were the leading causes of death, so to improve survival in these regions the researchers recommend improving the uptake of breastfeeding, providing vaccines for pneumonia, malaria and diarrhoea, and improving water and sanitation.

In comparison, for countries with the lowest rate of child death (less than 10 per 1,000 births) which include the Russian Federation and the United States of America, the leading causes of death include congenital abnormalities, complications due to premature birth and injuries. Improved detection and surgery for congenital abnormalities, better medical care during pregnancy and childbirth, and more research on effectiveness of injury interventions could help improve survival in these countries.

Dr Li Liu, lead author from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said: "Child survival has improved substantially since the Millennium Development Goals were set even though the target to reduce child deaths by two-thirds was not achieved. The problem is that this progress is uneven across all countries, meaning a high child death rate persists in many countries. Substantial progress is needed for countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia to achieve the child survival target of the Sustainable Development Goals."

The model used in the study provides estimates based on vital registration data and from high quality literature on causes of child deaths. It used statistical analysis to estimate figures for countries with poor data collection due to there being fewer birth and death registries.

The study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the World Health Organization. It was conducted by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, the World Health Organization, The China National Office of Maternal and Child Health Surveillance and Sichuan University.

Publication

• Dr Li Liu, Shefali Oza, Dan Hogan, Yue Chu, Jamie Perin, un Zhu, Joy E Lawn, Simon Cousens, Colin Mathers, Robert E Black, Global, regional, and national causes of under-5 mortality in 2000-15: an updated systematic analysis with implications for the Sustainable Development Goals, The Lancet. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31593-8

Related links

• The Centre for Maternal, Adolescent, Reproductive and Child Health (MARCH)
• MSc Reproductive & Sexual Health Research

Image: A newborn child born hours before at a regional hospital in Hawassa, Ethiopia. Credit: Nicole M. Melancon, Courtesy of Photoshare