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Real-time monitoring and short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 pandemic

Real-time monitoring and short-term forecasting of infectious diseases facilitate situational awareness and can inform public health planning. One prominent way to monitor ongoing outbreaks is via the reproduction number R.

In this talk, Dr Sebastian Funk will describe an ongoing effort to track R globally and discuss the practical and statistical challenges in estimating R, from uncertainty in underlying parameters, biases in the data used for estimation, and uncertain delays in the infection and reporting process. He will further explore the link between R and short-term forecasts of the outbreak trajectory and discuss limitations in the ability to make forecasts in the longer term.        

 

About the speaker

Sebastian’s work revolves around statistical methods, often using mathematical models of infectious disease dynamics, applied to questions around public health. He is interested in the emergence, evolution and spread of infectious diseases, with a particular interest in the dynamic interaction of diseases with behavioural, societal and environmental factors, as well as strategies for disease eradication.  

 

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