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Neutralising antibodies as a correlate for predicting protection from COVID-19 disease

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to unfold, a key piece of information for informing public health decision making is how immune the population is over time and to the latest variants. An immune marker which correlates with immunity/vaccine efficacy, such as that used for influenza, is critical for public health decision making. Neutralising antibodies have been shown to be correlated with protection from symptomatic COVID-19, however the extent to which they are solely responsible for this protection, as well as the protection they confer against severe disease and over time is still very much under debate.

Our work has used mathematical modelling to identify a relationship between neutralising antibody levels and protection from COVID-19 for both the ancestral strain and emerging variants. In this talk, I will discuss the utility of using neutralising antibodies as a correlate of protection against different disease endpoints, emerging variants, over time and in the face of hybrid immunity.


Dr Deborah Cromer leads the Infection Epidemiology and Policy Analytics group at the Kirby Institute, UNSW. She uses mathematical and quantitative approaches to understand immunology and infection. Her work has made a significant contribution to understanding immune correlates of infection for COVID-19.