series event

Modelling TB burden at the subnational level: applications in South Africa and Indonesia

In this seminar, Tom Sumner and Rein Houben will discuss two examples of modelling TB burden estimates at the subnational level:

The use of sub-national TB modelling to inform province level decision-making in South Africa

Tom Sumner, Assistant Professor, IDE/EPH, LSHTM

Abstract: In South Africa, the delivery of TB control policy is driven primarily at the provincial level. As such a sub-national planning tool could be of value. This presentation will describe the application of “TIME Impact”, a freely available epidemiological transmission model, to predict the impact of scale up of TB services on province level TB burden and highlight issues and challenges with modelling TB at sub-national level.    


Generation and interpretation of subnational tuberculosis burden estimates in a high burden setting – a model for Indonesia

Rein Houben, Associate Professor, IDE/EPH, LSHTM

Abstract: In many high TB burden countries, there is substantial geographical heterogeneity in TB burden. In addition, decisions on TB funding and policy are highly decentralised. While this offers opportunities to tailor activities to the needs of the local burden and current health system performance, subnational estimates of burden are usually unavailable for planning and target setting. This presentation will describe a collaborative effort to develop and implement a model to estimate TB burden and current health system utilisation to the relevant subnational level in Indonesia, where 510 district health offices have complete autonomy on operational implementation and resource allocation.


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