Mathematical modelling in the time of COVID-19
Modelling insights into transmission within schools and assessing the potential impacts of variants of concern
As the UK continues to gradually lift restrictions against SARS-CoV-2, and the rollout of vaccine progresses, Dr Louise Dyson will present modelling work undertaken to inform the UK response.
Firstly a model of within-school transmission incorporating lateral flow testing, developed to investigate potential strategies for reducing infections while maximizing school attendance. Secondly, a two-strain model of infection, used to explore the effects of potential variants of concern. We demonstrate that, even when a variant is less transmissible than the locally dominant variant, reduced immunity can lead to a significant wave of infection as other controls are relaxed.
Dr Louise Dyson, Associate Professor in Epidemiology at the University of Warwick
Dr Louise Dyson is an Associate Professor in Epidemiology at the University of Warwick. She uses mathematical modelling to understand how diseases spread and to analyse biological systems. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Louise has contributed modelling insights to the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), a subgroup of Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), giving scientific advice to the government to inform policy decisions. She is also a member of the Joint Universities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research (JUNIPER) consortium, which connects teams of epidemiological modellers and statisticians from multiple UK institutions. The JUNIPER consortium provides a structure to respond to rapid requests from the UK government via SPI-M and SAGE, including providing weekly forecast of the reproductive number R and growth rate in the UK and predictions of the effect on the spread of given interventions.
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