Deciphering the temporal drivers of the incidence of diseases caused by human enteroviruses
Human enteroviruses are common viruses that can circulate year-round but tend to peak in summer in temperate regions. Although most infections are asymptomatic, they can cause neurological and other diseases. Recent outbreaks, such as hand-foot-and-mouth disease in Southeast Asia and the emergence in 2014 of enterovirus D68 causing severe respiratory illnesses underline their global health importance.
In this talk, I will present recent work focused on elucidating the drivers of the temporal dynamics of enterovirus outbreaks. First, I will present some work characterizing the seasonality of enterovirus cases in the United States and present evidence that this is likely to be driven by climate. Second, I will show that the complex incidence pattern of the most prevalent serotypes in Japan can be explained by a simple model that accounts for changing birth rates and the acquisition of serotype-specific immunity. I will finish by considering important open questions in the field.