Course objectives
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Course learning objectives - Outbreak Analytics and Applied Modelling in R
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Week 1
- Efficiently clean and standardize individual-level case data (i.e., line lists): standardise different date and number formats, understand patterns of missing data, check sequence of dated events, and perform dictionary-based substitutions from clean hand entered categories like sex or location.
- Protect your real-time analysis against frequent changes and updates in input data like new entries, new variables, and renamed variables, by using validation rules.
- Produce epidemic curves to explore patterns of disease spread by different groups and time intervals using individual-level case data (i.e., line lists).
- Apply best practices for reproducible analysis and reporting during an outbreak.
Week 2
- Access and analyse common epidemiological parameters (e.g., incubation period, serial interval, and epidemiological delays) from open-source literature search databases stored in newly developed R packages.
- Estimate key transmission metrics, such as the reproduction number, from real-time or retrospective surveillance data.
- Produce short-term forecasts that account for reporting delays, noise and uncertainty in outbreak reporting.
- Estimate the case fatality risk (CFR) from individual-level and aggregated incidence case and death data, adjusting for delays between onset of symptoms and disease outcome.
Week 3
- Estimate and compare the dispersion parameter, a critical measure of superspreading events, from contact tracing data.
- Summarise the proportion of transmission that is linked to 'superspreading events', and implications for forwards and backwards contact tracing.
- Generate short-term simulated projections that account for randomness in early outbreak transmission.
Week 4
- Access and analyse reported epidemiologically relevant social contact mixing data from different countries.
- Assess outbreak risk (i.e., the potential for sustained transmission) under different immunisation scenarios, accounting for age patterns of social contact and vaccine coverage.
- Create simulated epidemic scenarios that account for population structure to compare the impact of non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions.
- Produce scenario visualisations to communicate key findings to wider audiences
This curriculum features a range of methods and R packages that have been used previously in real-life outbreak preparedness and response, including open-source packages from the Epiverse-TRACE, Epiforecasts, and Reconverse toolkits.