I am an epidemiologist who uses data analytics to prevent outbreaks and solve challenges in epidemiology. My primary interests are on how we can better use surveillance to understand dynamics, with a long-term focus on polio eradication. I am the co-Director of the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID), with Seb Funk.
My research team are the modelling partners of Unicef within the Global Polio Eradication Initiative. We carry out analysis and modelling to better understand epidemiology and inform policy decisions. Current collaborations involve close interaction with the WHO, BMGF and UNICEF to support the final stages of polio eradication such as understanding the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns and developing suitable strategies for response to vaccine-derived polioviruses. I am a member of the polio SAGE at WHO.
More recently, several projects have been initiated in wastewater surveillance. As part of an ongoing project, funded by the BMGF, I am part of a consortia where multi-pathogen wastewater surveillance in South Africa is being evaluated. Previous projects include a secondment to UKHSA to support analysis of wastewater data, and an engagement project on analytics development. Additional collaborative grants starting in 2025 include the HPRU in Climate Health and Security where I am the Theme 2 ("Infectious Disease") lead (link to previous HPRU) and the HPRU in Health Analytics and Modelling (link to previous HPRU). Both continue my collaborations with UKHSA.
For my own Publications please see my regularly updated Google Scholar profile. I have highlighted several recent publications at the bottom of this page.
I have recently had several PhD students complete their studies and they have moved onto working for the WHO and MSF, among other international organisations. I regularly supervise MSc and MPH students and have co-authored papers with several students. Getting everyone interested in science is very important to me and I regularly visit schools as part of the Inspire Initiative.
Affiliations
Centres
Teaching
I have previously co-organised the module for Statistics for Health Data Science, part of the Health Data Science MSc.
Research
There are several ongoing projects:
- Modelling to Support Polio Eradication and OPV Cessation (BMGF funded, PI)
- ES Analytics: Validation, Application and Interventions for Public Health (BMGF funded, collaborator). Involves collaboration with NICD (South Africa), SACEMA (South Africa), and MASHA (South Africa).
- HPRU in Climate Change and Health Security (NIHR funded, PI Shakoor Hajat). I am a co-lead in the infectious disease theme.
Projects that have now been completed (as of May 2024):
- Polio-SPEC: Surveillance Modelling to Support Polio Elimination and Certification (WHO funded, PI). This project focusses on developing and applying statistical methods to assess elimination of polio.
- Investigating the role of social contact patterns on the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan (primary supervisor of Tomoka Nakamura - part of the WISE program)
- Modelling and analysis for the use of wastewater to understand the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 and other priority pathogens (UKHSA secondment, and extra funding from the Alan Turing Institute)
- Why do norovirus pandemics occur and how can we control them? (Wellcome Trust funded project with UCL, PHE, Univ Liverpool)
- Epidemiology and vaccination strategies for type-2 vaccine-derived poliovirus (primary supervisor of MRC funded student Grace Macklin).
- Understanding the future trajectory of the Zika virus epidemic and strategies to prevent transmission (as part of the ZikaPLAN and ZikaAlliance consortia, with Oliver Brady and Laith Yakob)
- Development of suitable scale-up strategies for Wolbachia use in high transmission settings applied to Dengue (BMGF funded, led by Oliver Brady)
Selected Publications
