Supervisory team
LSHTM
Nagasaki University
External advisors (Nagasaki University)
- Shinta Seto
- Sayaka Yoshikawa
Project
Background
Extreme weather events such as flooding and heavy rainfall are becoming increasingly frequent and severe due to climate change and inadequate infrastructure. These events pose substantial risks to population health, particularly in low- and middle-income countries where infrastructure and water-sanitation systems are vulnerable. Although there is growing evidence linking floods and heavy rainfall with adverse health outcomes, current approaches to flood exposure assessment remain inconsistent, often relying on coarse spatial or temporal proxies that fail to capture the dynamic and heterogeneous nature of flooding. Developing refined exposure metrics is therefore critical for generating more accurate and comparable estimates of health risks, and for informing early-warning systems and health system preparedness in the face of ongoing and future climatic shifts.
This project aims to advance flood-health modelling by developing, comparing, and validating exposure metrics for rainfall and flooding, and by quantifying their associations with water-borne diseases across diverse global settings. The project will use daily mortality and morbidity datasets (including surveillance records, hospital admissions, and outpatient visits) from national health databases collated by the ClimED Research Network through extensive international collaborations. Disease data are available from 47 countries across six world regions and include records on more than 100 million hospital visits and 180 million diarrhoea cases captured through national and regional surveillance systems.
Meteorological and satellite-derived environmental datasets, available through the Awareness Against Health Threats of Extreme Weather Events (AWARE) project, will be integrated to develop high-resolution exposure metrics. Advanced statistical approaches, including spatio-temporal and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs), will be applied to quantify lagged and cumulative effects of flood exposure on diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality.
The proposal is designed to be flexible, allowing the student to shape the research direction based on their own motivations and areas of interest - be it methodological innovation or geographic focus. The overall goal is to generate evidence and methodological advances that strengthen the capacity to monitor, predict, and mitigate the health impacts of flooding in a changing climate.
The role of LSHTM and NU in this collaborative project
The student will be based primarily in Nagasaki, with a minimum of six months in London for training, data analysis, and supervisory guidance.
The student will be embedded within a current collaboration between LSHTM and Nagasaki University through the ClimED Research Network and the AWARE project.
Cherie Part and Sari Kovats will facilitate data collection on environmental factors, while also offering a comprehensive training program and in-depth methodological supervision. While based in London, the student will have the opportunity to undertake relevant MSc modules, including Environmental Epidemiology, 'Advanced Statistical Methods in Epidemiology', and 'Spatial Epidemiology in Public Health'. The student will be situated within the Climate and Health group, which includes experts in environmental epidemiology, statistics, physiology, and policy development.
Lina Madaniyazi will provide access to environmental and health outcome data and offer expertise in statistical analysis. The student will also benefit from related work being undertaken within the MIRAI-PH, including expert input on modelling flooding and rainfall from a partner hydrologist in Japan.
Particular prior educational requirements for a student undertaking this project
- The student should possess a MSc level qualification in public health, epidemiology, or medical statistics. However, candidates with a MSc in a closely related discipline will also be considered, provided it included a robust epidemiological and/or statistical component.
- Experience working with programming languages, such as R or Python, is highly desirable.
Skills we expect a student to develop/acquire whilst pursuing this project
We expect the student to develop expertise in environmental epidemiology, advanced statistical techniques, and climate-health research, with particular focus on the health impacts of flood and rainfall exposures. The student will gain valuable experience working with large environmental and health datasets.
The student will be supported, and closely integrated within, the Clim-ED and AWARE projects. They will be collaborating closely with experienced meteorologists, climate scientists, and environmental epidemiologists within both projects.