London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

Following recommendations to shift to healthier diets, improve farm productivity and halve food waste, could reduce global agricultural land use by up to 6% by 2050 and lead to a 42% decline ($630 billion) in global livestock production value compared to 2020.

Implementing the changes by 2050 would also lead to an estimated 70% ($274bn) decrease in the production value of ruminant animals (beef cattle, sheep, and goats) and 400 million fewer ruminant animals globally compared to 2020. In contrast the global value of vegetable, fruit, nut and legume production would increase by 57% ($890bn).

The findings come from a new analysis published in Nature by researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), Cornell University, and 10 modelling teams that looked at the implications of implementing a 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission style food systems transformation.

The 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission report found that if people around the world switched to healthy diets it would result in 15 million fewer premature deaths per year [1]. Previous research estimated the hidden costs of current global food systems at $10-$20 trillion annually [2], with the majority of these costs linked to unhealthy diets.

The new analysis shows that following the 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission recommendations could also see agriculture related net-CO2 emissions from land-use change fall by 85% by 2050 compared to 2020 levels.

Dr Matt Gibson, lead author, who began the work at Cornell University before joining the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), said: “Transforming food systems would deliver enormous potential benefits to our health and the environment but, as our results make clear, they would also lead to fundamental changes to global agriculture and affect the lives of millions of farmers and food producers.

“Rather than using these results as an excuse for inaction it’s critical that governments rise to the challenge and make difficult decisions for the good of our health and the planet. This means confronting powerful groups that profit from the status quo and a global food system that currently fails both those who produce our food and those who should be nourished by it.”

Daniel Mason-D’Croz, study co-author from Cornell University, said: “We should consider these scenarios not as a forecast of what will happen, but as a useful early guide of where challenges and opportunities may arise. Which sectors would need to contract, and which would need to expand. A transformation of this magnitude cannot begin in 2050. Foresight modelling like that highlighted in this study is a valuable tool to inform actions today for more sustainable, healthy, and just food systems tomorrow.”

The study suggests the impacts of food transformation on agriculture at a regional and national level would vary: overall US agricultural production value would decrease by 21% ($76bn) by 2050 compared to 2020, but within this US crop production value would increase by 20% ($40bn) while livestock production value would decrease by 73% ($116bn).

In India the picture is different: overall Indian agricultural production value would increase by 46% ($198bn) by 2050 compared to 2020. Within this Indian crop production value would increase by 65% ($208bn) while livestock production value would decrease by 8% ($10bn).

European agricultural production value would decrease overall by 35% ($190bn) by 2050 compared to 2020. Within this, European crop production value would decrease by 8% ($22bn) while livestock production value would decrease by 66% ($168bn).

The study assumed a costless consumer preference shift toward healthy diets (i.e. people change their behaviour to demand healthier diets). In reality, the authors say there are challenges to changing consumer behaviour including questions of accessibility and affordability, as well as engaging with broader food cultures and individual tastes that all contribute to dietary choices. The scenarios explored in the study represent one of many alternative futures. More work is needed to develop and examine radically different scenarios.

The authors say that taking bold policy decisions now can help to support vulnerable groups, producers, and consumers in a world that transforms towards healthier, more sustainable diets.

Publication

Gibson et al. Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture. Nature. 2026 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-10775-2

Further information

The study was conducted by a consortium of 10 global modelling groups coordinated by the Food Systems & Global Change group at Cornell University. This work was done as part of the modelling assessment for the second EAT-Lancet Commission. The work was supported in part by the Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, with in-kind contributions from all 10 participating modelling groups.

[1] (Rockström J, Thilsted SH, Willett WC, Gordon LJ, Herrero M, Hicks CC, et al. The EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy, sustainable, and just food systems. The Lancet. 2025 Oct 11;406(10512):1625–700. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01201-2

[2] (IPBES. IPBES Nexus Assessment on Biodiversity, Water, Food, Health and Climate. Bonn, Germany: IPBES; 2024; Hendriks S, de Groot Ruiz A, Acosta MH, Baumers H, Galgani P, Mason-D’Croz D, et al. The True Cost of Food: A Preliminary Assessment. In: von Braun J, Afsana K, Fresco LO, Hassan MHA, editors. Science and Innovations for Food Systems Transformation [Internet]. Cham: Springer International Publishing; 2023 [cited 2025 Nov 3]. p. 581–601. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-15703-5_32)