Course Outline

The course makes use of Excel, and a specialist modelling package (Berkeley Madonna). The topics to be covered include:

• Key concepts in infectious disease epidemiology;
• The basic methods for setting up (deterministic and stochastic) infectious disease models;
• Practical applications of modelling, including predicting the impact of control strategies against infections, and describing the course of outbreaks;
• Analyses of serological data: methods for estimating age and time-dependent transmission rates and their application for developing models of the dynamics of infections;
• Modelling in real-time;
• How to read and interpret modelling papers;
• Models for describing STI transmission and control;
• Models of the dynamics and control of tuberculosis;
• Fitting models to data, network models, sensitivity analyses and introductory health economics.
• Guest lectures from researchers working on mathematical modelling.

The material from this popular and successful course is complemented by the published book “An Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling” which was written by two of the course organisers (Emilia Vynnycky and Richard White).

A typical day consists of lectures, computer practicals and small group discussions. Seminars by invited external modellers, epidemiologists and decision-makers, which highlight the practical applications of modelling, are also scheduled throughout the course. For participants attending in person, all teaching is carried out at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Students following the course remotely will be able to join the live lectures at the scheduled times and will also be able to listen to the pre-recorded lectures on the same topic if they choose. Times are scheduled during the day during which remote students can work on given practicals in virtual rooms with other students with tutor support.

A detailed course manual, a licence for the specialist, the user-friendly modelling package "Berkeley Madonna" and a copy of the book "An Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling" (written by the course organisers) will be given to participants. Participants will be required to use their own laptops onto which they will need to install Berkeley Madonna using the licence provided before the course and have a fully functional version of Excel.

Course Tutors

The course is taught by staff from the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and the Statistics, Modelling and Economics Department at the UK Health Security Agency (formerly, Public Health England), London. Staff have extensive experience of working closely with epidemiologists, policy and decision-makers, in applying modelling to field data from developed and developing countries and using models to guide policy decisions, and in teaching modelling techniques to professionals from medical and biological disciplines.

Methods of assessment

There is no formal assessment but, at the conclusion of the course, a Certificate of Attendance will be provided.