London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

Some populations are old and shrinking, others experience high fertility and are growing fast, and many experience sudden disruptions triggered by unforeseen circumstances such as humanitarian crises or epidemics. Each of these scenarios fundamentally changes the outlook of the societies wherein we live, with immediate implications for setting policy priorities and resource allocation. In this course, we introduce key methods for quantifying population attributes and change, with a focus on health and mortality. 

Intended learning outcomes

Upon successful completion of the module, a student will be able to:

• Demonstrate an understanding of some key techniques used in demographic analysis for the measurement of fertility and mortality. This includes standardisation techniques and the construction of life tables. 
• Identify the key steps in interpreting basic demographic data. 
• Explain the usefulness of a demographic approach for the study of population and health issues.
• Demonstrate a broader understanding of techniques used in demographic analysis for the measurement of fertility, mortality, migration, population structure and change.
• Appreciate how different types of demographic information may be collected and used.

Session Content

The first half of the module comprises the equivalent of five half-day sessions. Each session consists of background reading, a pre-recorded video lecture and a live classroom session wherein lecture materials and applications (i.e., practical exercises) are discussed. Most applications and exercises are computer-based. To that end, students can use either Excel, Stata, or R. In the first half of the term (week 1-5), we cover one topic per week. In the second half of the term (weeks 7-11), we cover two topics per week. The module is expected to cover the following topics (subject to change):

Part 1 (weeks 1-5) 

• Population composition, basic rates and ratios: Ratios, probabilities and rates, the balancing equation of population change, person-years, age and sex (population pyramids). 
• Measuring mortality and standardization: Crude Death Rate (CDR), age-specific death rates, direct and indirect standardization, and other mortality indices (IMR, U5MR, MMR). 
• Life tables: Cohort and period life tables, life expectancy (e0). 
• Life table extensions and applications: the life table as a stationary population, survivorship ratios, and the Net Reproduction Rate (NRR). 
• Fertility: concepts and definitions, child/woman ratio, the Crude Birth Rate (CBR), the General Fertility Rate (GFR), age-specific fertility rates, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), and cohort fertility. 

Part 2 (weeks 7-11) 

• Cohort fertility and parity progression: Period versus cohort fertility measures (tempo distortions), Completed Family Size (CFS), Parity Progression Ratio (PPR). 
• Birth Intervals or decomposition methods.
• Demographic data sources (1): censuses, vital registration, and surveys. 
• Demographic data sources (2): longitudinal studies, demographic surveillance, and causes of death. 
• Measures of morbidity and mortality: Health expectancies (i.e., Sullivan’s active life expectancy and Disability Adjusted Life Expectancy), and health gap measures (e.g., Disability Adjusted Life-Years, DALY). 
• Migration: definitions, migration as a component of population change, data sources, age patterns of migration rates, estimating net migration. 
• Multiple decrements: Multiple decrement life tables and cause-deleted life tables.
• Nuptiality: Marriage rates (decremental versus non-decremental rates), Indirect median age at first marriage, Singulate Mean Age at Marriage (SMAM), nuptiality tables.

Mode of delivery

This module is delivered predominantly face-to-face. Where specific teaching methods (lectures, seminars, discussion groups) are noted in this module specification these will be delivered by predominantly face-to-face sessions. There will be a combination of live and interactive activities (synchronous learning) as well as self-directed study (asynchronous learning).

Assessment

The assessment for this module has been designed to measure student learning against the module's intended learning outcomes (ILOs) as listed above Students are examined on their understanding of demographic methods and should be able to apply these methods and techniques in a statistical software package of their choice. 

An online formative assessment with feedback will be organised in consultation with students. The summative assessment will be organised during the last week of classes.

Credits

• CATS: 15
• ECTS: 7.5

Module specification

For full information regarding this module please see the module specification.