Timothy Russell


Research Fellow

Keppel Street
United Kingdom

My research focus is on antigenically variable pathogens - such as influenza and dengue fever. In particular, we are interested in understanding the dynamics of immune responses to such pathogens. We aim to combine data serology and surveillance data along with bayesian inference to attempt to address these difficult problems.

I also work on outbreak analysis during epidemics, such as COVID-19. Examples include contributed to work which analysed the feasibility of controlling the outbreak with contact tracing and isolation; real-time predictions of time varying reproduction numbers and estimating a corrected CFR


Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health


Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases


I am a mathematical biologist by background. My PhD, supervised by Vincent Jansen at Royal Holloway, was spent studying dynamical systems motivated by the interplay between selection and recombination within the framework of evolutionary genetics. We were especially interested when such systems exhibited non-equilibrium dynamics such as limit cycles, heteroclinic cycles & networks and the nearby chaotic behaviours associated with heteroclinic networks.

I graduated Bristol University with a BSc in Maths & Biology (joint honours). I then did an MSc in Advanced Mathematical Biology at York University after which I did a PhD in mathematical biology at Royal Holloway, University of Londo

Research Area
Statistical methods
Bayesian Analysis
Disease and Health Conditions
Infectious disease

Selected Publications

Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts.
Hellewell J; Abbott S; Gimma A; Bosse NI; Jarvis CI; Russell TW; Munday JD; Kucharski AJ; Edmunds WJ; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COV
The Lancet. Global health
Quantifying the impact of physical distance measures on the transmission of COVID-19 in the UK.
Jarvis CI; Van Zandvoort K; Gimma A; Prem K; CMMID COVID-19 working group; Klepac P; Rubin GJ; Edmunds WJ
BMC medicine
Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study.
Kucharski AJ; Russell TW; Diamond C; Liu Y; Edmunds J; Funk S; Eggo RM; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-1
The Lancet. Infectious diseases
The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study.
Prem K; Liu Y; Russell TW; Kucharski AJ; Eggo RM; Davies N; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COV; Jit M; Klepac P
The Lancet. Public health
The effect of inter-city travel restrictions on geographical spread of COVID-19: Evidence from Wuhan, China
Quilty B; Diamond C; Liu Y; Gibbs H; Russell T; Jarvis C; Prem K; Pearson C; Clifford S; Flasche S
Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for COVID-19 using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship
Russell T; Hellewell J; Jarvis C; van-Zandvoort K; Abbott S; Ratnayake R; Flasche S; Eggo R; Kucharski A; CMMID nCov working group
Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, February 2020.
Russell TW; Hellewell J; Jarvis CI; van Zandvoort K; Abbott S; Ratnayake R; Cmmid Covid-Working Group; Flasche S; Eggo RM; Edmunds WJ
Euro Surveill
Stable cycling in quasi-linkage equilibrium: Fluctuating dynamics under gene conversion and selection.
Russell TW; Russell MJ; Úbeda F; Jansen VAA
See more Publications