Timothy Russell


Research Fellow

Keppel Street
United Kingdom

My research focus is on antigenically variable pathogens - such as influenza and dengue fever. In particular, we are interested in understanding the dynamics of immune responses to such pathogens. We aim to combine data serology and surveillance data along with bayesian inference to attempt to address these difficult problems.

I also work on outbreak analysis during epidemics, such as COVID-19. Examples include contributed to work which analysed the feasibility of controlling the outbreak with contact tracing and isolation; real-time predictions of time varying reproduction numbers and estimating a corrected CFR


Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology


Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID)


I am a mathematical biologist by background. My PhD, supervised by Vincent Jansen at Royal Holloway, was spent studying dynamical systems motivated by the interplay between selection and recombination within the framework of evolutionary genetics. We were especially interested when such systems exhibited non-equilibrium dynamics such as limit cycles, heteroclinic cycles & networks and the nearby chaotic behaviours associated with heteroclinic networks.

I graduated Bristol University with a BSc in Maths & Biology (joint honours). I then did an MSc in Advanced Mathematical Biology at York University after which I did a PhD in mathematical biology at Royal Holloway, University of Londo

Research Area
Statistical methods
Bayesian Analysis
Disease and Health Conditions
Infectious disease

Selected Publications

Routine childhood immunisation during the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa: a benefit-risk analysis of health benefits versus excess risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Abbas K; Procter SR; van Zandvoort K; Clark A; Funk S; Mengistu T; Hogan D; Dansereau E; Jit M; Flasche S
The Lancet Global Health
Strategies to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 re-introduction from international travellers
Clifford S; Quilty B; Russell T; Liu Y; Chan Y-WD; Pearson C; Eggo R; Endo A; Flasche S; Edmunds J
Estimated transmissibility and severity of novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in England
Davies N; Barnard R; Jarvis C; Kucharski A; Munday J; Pearson C; Russell T; Tully D; Abbott S; Gimma A
The contribution of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections to transmission on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.
Emery JC; Russell TW; Liu Y; Hellewell J; Pearson CA; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; Atkins KE; Klepac P; Endo A; Jarvis CI
Using a real-world network to model localized COVID-19 control strategies.
Firth JA; Hellewell J; Klepac P; Kissler S; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; Kucharski AJ; Spurgin LG
Nature medicine
Estimating the effectiveness of routine asymptomatic PCR testing at different frequencies for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 infections
Hellewell J; Russell T; Beale R; Kelly G; Houlihan C; Nastouli E; Kucharski A; The SAFER Investigators and Field Study Team; The Crick COVID-19 Consortium; CMMID COVID-19 working group
The effect of travel restrictions on the geographical spread of COVID-19 between large cities in China: a modelling study.
Quilty BJ; Diamond C; Liu Y; Gibbs H; Russell TW; Jarvis CI; Prem K; Pearson CAB; Clifford S; Flasche S
BMC medicine
Reconstructing the early global dynamics of under-ascertained COVID-19 cases and infections.
Russell TW; Golding N; Hellewell J; Abbott S; Wright L; Pearson CAB; van Zandvoort K; Jarvis CI; Gibbs H; Liu Y
BMC medicine
See more Publications