Timothy Russell


Research Fellow

Keppel Street
United Kingdom

My research focus is on antigenically variable pathogens - such as influenza and dengue fever. In particular, we are interested in understanding the dynamics of immune responses to such pathogens. We aim to combine data serology and surveillance data along with bayesian inference to attempt to address these difficult problems.

I also work on outbreak analysis during epidemics, such as COVID-19. Examples include contributed to work which analysed the feasibility of controlling the outbreak with contact tracing and isolation; real-time predictions of time varying reproduction numbers and estimating a corrected CFR


Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health


Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID)


I am a mathematical biologist by background. My PhD, supervised by Vincent Jansen at Royal Holloway, was spent studying dynamical systems motivated by the interplay between selection and recombination within the framework of evolutionary genetics. We were especially interested when such systems exhibited non-equilibrium dynamics such as limit cycles, heteroclinic cycles & networks and the nearby chaotic behaviours associated with heteroclinic networks.

I graduated Bristol University with a BSc in Maths & Biology (joint honours). I then did an MSc in Advanced Mathematical Biology at York University after which I did a PhD in mathematical biology at Royal Holloway, University of Londo

Research Area
Statistical methods
Bayesian Analysis
Disease and Health Conditions
Infectious disease

Selected Publications

Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study.
Clark A; Jit M; Warren-Gash C; Guthrie B; Wang HHX; Mercer SW; Sanderson C; McKee M; Troeger C; Ong KL
The Lancet. Global Health
Strategies to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 re-introduction from international travellers
Clifford S; Quilty B; Russell T; Liu Y; Chan Y-WD; Pearson C; Eggo R; Endo A; Flasche S; Edmunds J
Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study.
Davies NG; Kucharski AJ; Eggo RM; Gimma A; Edmunds WJ; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COV
The Lancet. Public health
Reconstructing the global dynamics of under-ascertained COVID-19 cases and infections
Golding N; Russell T; Abbott S; Hellewell J; Pearson C; van Zandvoort K; Jarvis C; Gibbs H; Liu Y; Eggo R
Quantifying the impact of physical distance measures on the transmission of COVID-19 in the UK.
Jarvis CI; Van Zandvoort K; Gimma A; Prem K; CMMID COVID-19 working group; Klepac P; Rubin GJ; Edmunds WJ
BMC medicine
Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths
Jombart T; van Zandvoort K; Russell T; Jarvis C; Gimma A; Abbott S; Clifford S; Funk S; Gibbs H; Liu Y
Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths.
Jombart T; van Zandvoort K; Russell TW; Jarvis CI; Gimma A; Abbott S; Clifford S; Funk S; Gibbs H; Liu Y
Wellcome open research
The effect of international travel restrictions on internal spread of COVID-19
Russell T; Wu J; Clifford S; Edmunds J; Kucharski A; Jit M
See more Publications