Dr Rosanna Barnard

MMath PhD

Research Fellow
in Infectious Disease Modelling

Keppel Street
United Kingdom

I joined the London School of Hygiene in July 2020 as a Research Fellow in Infectious Disease Modelling. I am based within the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, which is part of the Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health.

Since 2020 I have been working alongside Mark Jit and John Edmunds and a number of collaborators within the Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID), mostly focussed on the UK's response to COVID-19. I am also a member of the Centre for Epidemic Preparedness and Response (CEPR).

Before joining LSHTM I was based at the University of Sussex, where I am now a Research Associate. As well as doing research, I am passionate about research communication, teaching and widening participation in science more generally.


Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology


Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID)
Centre for Epidemic Preparedness and Response


I am interested in using mathematical and statistical techniques to provide better understanding about the real world.

My current work involves using mathematical models in the context of the COVID-19 response. My funding comes from the EU Horizon 2020 EpiPose project. The aim of this project is to provide epidemic intelligence to minimise 2019-nCoV’s public health, economic and social impact in Europe. I am involved in a number of projects utilising SARS-CoV-2 transmission models to understand the key drivers of disease spread as well as provide useful projections to help guide policy responses.

Previously I have enjoyed working on theoretical network-based models in the fields of neuroscience and epidemiology. I am fascinated by the universal nature of networks and the complex nature of the network structures we all engage in throughout our lives. More recently, I have been involved in more applied, data-driven modelling to inform real-world insights.

I am happy to discuss new ideas and projects, so please contact me via email if you would like to set up a virtual coffee or propose a collaboration.

Research Area
Public health
Disease control
Mathematical modelling
Disease and Health Conditions
Infectious disease
Euro area
Sub-Saharan Africa (all income levels)

Selected Publications

Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era.
Barnard RC; Davies NG; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-1; Jit M; Edmunds WJ
Nature Communications
Simulating respiratory disease transmission within and between classrooms to assess pandemic management strategies at schools.
Endo 遠藤彰 A; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; Uchida 内田満夫 M; Liu 刘扬 Y; Atkins KE; Kucharski AJ; Funk S
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Dosing interval strategies for two-dose COVID-19 vaccination in 13 middle-income countries of Europe: Health impact modelling and benefit-risk analysis.
Liu Y; Pearson CAB; Sandmann FG; Barnard RC; Kim J-H; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; Flasche S; Jit M; Abbas K
The Lancet Regional Health - Europe
The impact of COVID-19 vaccination in prisons in England and Wales: a metapopulation model.
McCarthy CV; O'Mara O; van Leeuwen E; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; Jit M; Sandmann F
BMC Public Health
Using high-resolution contact networks to evaluate SARS-CoV-2 transmission and control in large-scale multi-day events.
Pung R; Firth JA; Spurgin LG; Singapore CruiseSafe working group; CMMID COVID-19 working group; Lee VJ; Kucharski AJ
Nature Communications
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in English care homes: a modelling study.
Rosello A; Barnard RC; Smith DRM; Evans S; Grimm F; Davies NG; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-1; Deeny SR; Knight GM; Edmunds WJ
BMC infectious diseases
Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a strictly-Orthodox Jewish community in the UK.
Waites W; Pearson CAB; Gaskell KM; House T; Pellis L; Johnson M; Gould V; Hunt A; Stone NRH; Kasstan B
Scientific Reports
See more Publications