Dr Rosanna Barnard

MMath PhD

Research Fellow
in Infectious Disease Modelling

Keppel Street
United Kingdom

I joined the London School of Hygiene in July 2020 as a Research Fellow in Infectious Disease Modelling. I am based within the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, which is part of the Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health. I work alongside Mark Jit and John Edmunds and number of collaborators within the Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID), and as part of the CMMID nCov working group. I have recently joined the CMMID seminar organising team as junior organiser, alongside Julian Villabona-Arenas and Kiesha Prem.

Before joining LSHTM I was based at the University of Sussex, where I am now a Research Associate. As well as doing research, I am passionate about research communication, teaching and widening participation in science more generally. For the last few years I have enjoyed teaching evening courses on web development for women as part of Code First: Girls, and in the summer of 2019 I was a speaker at Brighton's Soapbox Science event. I have also taught a number of more formal undergraduate and postgraduate teaching modules at the University of Sussex.


Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health


Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID)


I am interested in using mathematical and statistical techniques to provide better understanding about the real world.

My current work involves using mathematical models in the context of the COVID-19 response. My funding comes from the EU Horizon 2020 EpiPose project. The aim of this project is to provide epidemic intelligence to minimise 2019-nCoV’s public health, economic and social impact in Europe. I am involved in a number of projects utilising SARS-CoV-2 transmission models to understand the key drivers of disease spread as well as provide useful projections to help guide policy responses.

Previously I have enjoyed working on theoretical network-based models in the fields of neuroscience and epidemiology. I am fascinated by the universal nature of networks and the complex nature of the network structures we all engage in throughout our lives. More recently, I have been involved in more applied, data-driven modelling to inform real-world insights.

I am happy to discuss new ideas and projects, so please contact me via email if you would like to set up a virtual coffee or propose a collaboration.

Research Area
Bayesian Analysis
Disease control
Spatial analysis
GIS/Spatial analysis
Mathematical modelling
Disease and Health Conditions
Infectious disease
Euro area
Sub-Saharan Africa (all income levels)

Selected Publications

Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England.
Davies NG; Abbott S; Barnard RC; Jarvis CI; Kucharski AJ; Munday JD; Pearson CAB; Russell TW; Tully DC; Washburne AD
Science (New York, N.Y.)
Increased mortality in community-tested cases of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7.
Davies NG; Jarvis CI; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; Edmunds WJ; Jewell NP; Diaz-Ordaz K; Keogh RH
The impact of local and national restrictions in response to COVID-19 on social contacts in England: a longitudinal natural experiment.
Jarvis CI; Gimma A; van Zandvoort K; Wong KLM; CMMID COVID-19 working group; Edmunds WJ
BMC medicine
The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission across 130 countries and territories.
Liu Y; Morgenstern C; Kelly J; Lowe R; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; Jit M
BMC Medicine
Optimising health and economic impacts of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation strategies in the WHO European Region.
Liu Y; Sandmann FG; Barnard RC; Pearson CAB; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; Pastore R; Pebody R; Flasche S; Jit M
The importance of supplementary immunisation activities to prevent measles outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya.
Mburu CN; Ojal J; Chebet R; Akech D; Karia B; Tuju J; Sigilai A; Abbas K; Jit M; Funk S
BMC medicine
Global and national estimates of the number of healthcare workers at high risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
McCarthy CV; Sandmann FG; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; Jit M
The Journal of hospital infection
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in English care homes: a modelling study
Roselló A; Barnard R; Smith D; Evans S; Grimm F; Davies N; Deeny S; Knight G; Edmunds J; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 modelling working group
See more Publications