Mr Alexis Robert

Res Fellow Infectious Disease Modelling

United Kingdom

I am a mathematical modeller in infectious disease dynamics, I first joined the school as a research assistant in 2016, and completed a PhD funded by the Medical Research Council on "Modelling the risks of measles outbreaks near elimination" (2017-2021). I now work on assessing the risks of measles outbreaks in England and Wales, and on analysing subnational COVID-19 outbreak risks in Europe.

Prior to joining the School, I completed two Master’s degrees in 2016: one in Bioinformatics and Modelling at INSA de Lyon and another in Public Health at Lyon 1 University. I previously worked in the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease Team at the Institut Pasteur on Dengue transmission in New Caledonia.

I am affiliated with the Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, and my current project is funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR).


Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics
Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health


Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases


My core project focuses on developing statistical methods and tools to understand the transmission patterns of measles in England and Wales. This means disentangling the drivers of transmission in previous outbreaks, and identifying indicators of the local risks of transmission. In particular, I am interested in the influence of spatial and social heterogeneity in immunity on the spread of measles, which can be explored using inferred transmission trees (i.e. who-infected-whom) from previous outbreaks, and by looking into the correlation between various local indicators and the risks of measles outbreaks. I am also interested in the integration of behavioural and movement data into transmission models.

More broadly, I am interested in implementing novel frameworks using Bayesian parameter estimation procedures to reconstruct transmission history. These frameworks aim to complement the information collected by contact tracing investigations, and improve our understanding of the determinants of transmission.

Selected Publications

Predicting subnational incidence of COVID-19 cases and deaths in EU countries
ROBERT, A; Chapman, LA C; Grah, R; Niehus, R; Sandmann, F; Prasse, B; FUNK, S; KUCHARSKI, AJ;
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza in a remote island population.
HAN, SM; ROBERT, A; Masuda, S; Yasaka, T; Kanda, S; Komori, K; Saito, N; Suzuki, M; Endo, A; Baguelin, M; Ariyoshi, K;
Scientific reports
Quantifying the value of viral genomics when inferring who infected whom in the 2014-16 Ebola virus outbreak in Guinea.
ROBERT, A; Tsui Lok Hei, J; Watson, CH; Gsell, P-S; Hall, Y; Rambaut, A; Longini, IM; Sakoba, K; KUCHARSKI, AJ; Touré, A; Danmadji Nadlaou, S; Saidou Barry, M; Fofana, TO; Lansana Kaba, I; Sylla, L; Diaby, ML; Soumah, O; Diallo, A; Niare, A; Diallo, A; EGGO, RM; Caroll, MW; Henao-Restrepo, AM; EDMUNDS, WJ; Hué, S;
Virus evolution
Longitudinal social contact data analysis: insights from 2 years of data collection in Belgium during the COVID-19 pandemic
Loedy, N; Coletti, P; Wambua, J; Hermans, L; Willem, L; Jarvis, C; Wong, KL M; Edmunds, J; ROBERT, A; Leclerc, Q; Gimma, A; Molenberghs, G; Beutels, P; Faes, C; Hens, N;
Research Square
A Shiny App to predict subnational COVID-19 outbreak risk in EU countries
ROBERT, A; Chapman, L; FUNK, S; Kucharski, A;
Estimating the risks of measles outbreaks in near elimination settings, Measles symposium, LSHTM
The impact of local vaccine coverage and recent incidence on measles transmission in France between 2009 and 2018, Workshop on the Endemic-Epidemic framework for infectious disease modelling, LSHTM
The impact of local vaccine coverage and recent incidence on measles transmission
ROBERT, A; Kucharski, A; FUNK, S;
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