Dr Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths

BA MMath DPhil

Honorary Lecturer
in Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases


15-17 Tavistock Place
United Kingdom

My position at LSHTM is shared with a Senior Research Fellowship Post in Mathematics at Clinical and Operational Research Unit (CORU) at Department of Mathematics, UCL. I also hold a visiting lectureship at the Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology at Oxford University.

I read Mathematics at The Queen's College at Oxford University completing my undergraduate studies in Mathematics (BA) in June 1999, obtained a Masters Degree in Mathematics (MMath) in June 2000 and completed my DPhil in Mathematical Biology in December 2004. During my undergraduate and graduate studies at Oxford University I was a Scholar of The Queen's College.

My research focuses on applying mathematical and computational tools to explore a variety of biological systems, diseases and answer health policy questions. In the course of my work I look at evaluating vaccination strategies for childhood and HPV immunisation in the UK, use mathematical analysis to derive cost-effective HIV prevention interventions across different groups and settings, develop models to interpret the physiological signals post tramatic brain injury, design models to better understand cellular organisation within the neural tube and use mathematical modelling to halt tumour growth. 



Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health
Department of Global Health and Development
Faculty of Public Health and Policy


Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases
Vaccine Centre


Within LSHTM I teach mathematics and statistics to MSc students and also lecture on the modelling infectious diseases within the distance learning (DL) module.

I regularly supervise MSc projects that use applied mathematics to answer global health and policy questions.

Within UCL I teach applied mathematics within COMPLEX and Department of Mathematics, supervise PhD and MSc students.


In my research I focus on developing and applying mathematical models to a variety of epidemiological (e.g. infectious diseases in childhood, HIV transmission), physiological (e.g. cerebral haemodynamics and metabolism) and biological (e.g. neural tube patterning, tumour growth) problems. I analyse the relevant models using a variety of analytical methods as well as numerical simulation techniques to make verifiable predictions.

Research at LSHTM

My research at LSHTM focuses on evaluating the HPV vaccination in the UK and designing cost-effective HIV prevention interventions.

HPV vaccination

This work uses sophisticated epidemiological models and numerical simulations to explore the cost-effectiveness of different strategies for vaccination against Human Papilloma Virus (HPV). This work is in done in collaboration with Mark Jit's modelling group at Public Health England and the HPRU Vaccination Unit at LSHTM.

HIV modelling

In the scope of this work relevant deterministic models are developed and analysed in combination with available epidemiological, behavioural and cost data to design optimal HIV prevention interventions that can minimise the cost whist maximising the number of HIV infections that can be prevented. In this work I collaborate with Graham Medley's modelling group at LSHTM as well as Peter Vickerman's group at University of Bristol.

Research at CORU, UCL

My research within CORU at UCL has four parts: (a) using operational research techniques and analytical mathematics to evaluate the scheduling of the childhood vaccination in the UK and (b) how to allocate optimally allocate resources in HIV prevention interventions, (c) using modelling to interpret cerebral signalling and (d) using modelling to aid the understanding of the neural tube patterning.

Evaluating the childhood vaccination

This work focuses on generating an effective vaccine coverage vector and a burden of disease vector across all childhood diseases included in the current immunisation programme in the UK. By exploring the relationship between these we evaluate the impact of changes in the vaccination schedule. 

Using modelling to optimally allocate resources in HIV prevention interventions 

This work is a collaboration with Jolene Skordis-Worrall's team at the Institute of Global Health at UCL, University of South Wales and the World Bank. As part of this work an established model for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of different HIV interventions is applied to different settings aiming to design the optimal combination of allocated resources that averts maximum number of HIV cases.

Using modelling to interpret the physiological signals after traumatic brain injury

I collaborate with Clare Elwell's group within Medical Physics at UCL in using modelling to better understand the interplay between cerebral haemodynamics, oxygenation and metabolism.

Using modelling to aid the understanding of the patterning of the neural tube

I also collaborate with James Briscoe's Developmental Biology group within NIMR and Karen Page at UCL to develop and study models that aid the understanding of the patterning of the vertebrate neural tube.

Recent publications:

1. Prudden H, Beattie T, Bobrova N, Panovska-Grffiths J, Mukandavire Z, Gorgens M, Wilson D, Watts C. Factors associated with variations in population HIV prevalence across West Africa? Findings from an ecological analysis PLoS One. 2015 Dec, 10(12):e0142601.

2. Crowe S, Utley M, Walker G, Panovska-Griffiths J, Grove P, Pagel Christina, A novel approach to evaluating a national childhood immunization schedule: estimating the effective coverage vector across the entire vaccine programme. BMC Infect Dis. 2015 Dec, 15(1):585.

3. Highton D, Ghosh A, Tachsidis I, Panovska-Griffiths J, Elwell CE and Smith M. (2015) Monitoring cerebral autoregulation after brain injury: multimodal assessment of cerebral slow wave oscillations using near infrared spectroscopy. Anesth Analg. 2015 May 19. PMID: 25993387.

4. Panovska-Griffiths J, Vassell A, Prudden HJ, Lépine A, Boily MC, Chandrashekar S, Mitchell KM, Beattie TS, Alary M, Martin NK, Vickerman P. (2014) Optimal Allocation of Resources in Female Sex Worker Targeted HIV Prevention Interventions: Model Insights from Avahan in South India.PLoS One. 2014 Oct 1;9(10):e107066. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0107066. eCollection 2014. 

5. Panovska-Griffiths J, Page KM and Briscoe J. (2013) A gene regulatory motif that generates oscillatory and multiway switch outputs. J R Soc Interface. 2012 Dec 12;10(79):20120826. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2012.0826. Print 2013 Feb.

6. Highton D, Panovska-Griffiths J, Elwell CE and Smith M. (2013) Mathematical modelling of near-infrared spectroscopy signals and intracranial pressurein brain-injued patients. Adv Exp Med Biol. 2013;789:345-51. doi: 10.1007/978-1-4614-7411-1_46.

7. Highton D, Panovska-Griffiths J, Ghosh A, Tachtsidis I, Banaji M, Elwell C, Smith M. (2013) Modelling cerebrovascular reactivity:a novel near-infrared biomarker of cerebral autoregulation? Adv Exp Med Biol. 2013;765:87-93. doi: 10.1007/978-1-4614-4989-8_13.

8. Balaskas N, Ribeiro A, Panovska J, Dessaud E, Sasai N, Page KM, Briscoe J, Ribes V. (2012) Gene Regulatory Logic for Reading the Sonic Hedgehog Signaling Gradient in the Vertebrate Neural Tube. Cell. 2012 Jan 20;148(1-2):273-84. doi: 10.1016/j.cell.2011.10.047. 

Research Area
Child health
Public health
Global Health
Impact evaluation
Cell biology
Mathematical modelling

Selected Publications

Optimal Allocation of Resources in Female Sex Worker Targeted HIV Prevention Interventions: Model Insights from Avahan in South India.
Panovska-Griffiths, J. ; Vassall, A. ; Prudden, H.J. ; Lepine, A. ; Boily, M.C. ; Chandrashekar, S. ; Mitchell, K.M. ; Beattie, T.S. ; Alary, M. ; Martin, N.K. ; Vickerman, P. ;
PLoS One
Modelling cerebrovascular reactivity: a novel near-infrared biomarker of cerebral autoregulation?
Highton, D. ; Panovska-Griffiths, J. ; Ghosh, A. ; Tachtsidis, I. ; Banaji, M. ; Elwell, C. ; Smith, M. ;
Adv Exp Med Biol
Gene regulatory logic for reading the Sonic Hedgehog signaling gradient in the vertebrate neural tube.
Balaskas, N. ; Ribeiro, A. ; Panovska, J. ; Dessaud, E. ; Sasai, N. ; Page, K.M. ; Briscoe, J. ; Ribes, V. ;
See all Dr Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths's Publications