Prof Graham Medley

Professor of Infectious Disease Modellin

United Kingdom

I joined LSHTM in April 2015. I am an infectious disease modeller, and a former director of CMMID. I work a 3-day week.

My overall interest is the transmission dynamics of infectious disease, and I have published on many different pathogens and hosts - see [Google] or [ORCID] or [ResearcherID] for full lists. I am currently a member of the Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) modelling consortium.

I have been on an expert group in the Infected Blood Inquiry. From 2017-2023 I was chair of SPI-M (the pandemic preparedness committee in UK Department of Health), and 2020-2022 I chaired the SPI-M-O modelling subgroup of SAGE which provided evidence to the UK COVID-19 response.


Department of Global Health and Development
Faculty of Public Health and Policy


Centre for Evaluation
Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases
Antimicrobial Resistance Centre


I contribute to modules on NTD and Decision Making, and supervise projects.


I am interested in all things infectious. I have projects relating to COVID-19, NTD and HIV.

Research Area
Mathematical Modelling
Disease and Health Conditions
Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs)
Infectious diseases

Selected Publications

A spatio-temporal approach to short-term prediction of visceral leishmaniasis diagnoses in India.
NIGHTINGALE, ES; CHAPMAN, LA C; Srikantiah, S; Subramanian, S; Jambulingam, P; Bracher, J; CAMERON, MM; MEDLEY, GF;
Inferring transmission trees to guide targeting of interventions against visceral leishmaniasis and post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis.
CHAPMAN, LA C; Spencer, SE F; Pollington, TM; Jewell, CP; Mondal, D; Alvar, J; Hollingsworth, TD; CAMERON, MM; Bern, C; MEDLEY, GF;
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)
Model-based estimates of transmission of respiratory syncytial virus within households.
Kombe, IK; Munywoki, PK; BAGUELIN, M; Nokes, DJ; MEDLEY, GF;
The role of case proximity in transmission of visceral leishmaniasis in a highly endemic village in Bangladesh.
CHAPMAN, LA C; Jewell, CP; Spencer, SE F; Pellis, L; Datta, S; Chowdhury, R; Bern, C; MEDLEY, GF; Hollingsworth, TD;
PLoS neglected tropical diseases
Policy Lessons From Quantitative Modeling of Leprosy.
MEDLEY, GF; Blok, DJ; Crump, RE; Hollingsworth, TD; Galvani, AP; Ndeffo-Mbah, ML; Porco, TC; Richardus, JH;
Clinical infectious diseases
When an emerging disease becomes endemic.
Science (New York, NY)
Model-based geostatistical design and analysis of prevalence for soil-transmitted helminths in Kenya: Results from ten-years of the Kenya national school-based deworming programme.
Okoyo, C; Minnery, M; Orowe, I; Owaga, C; Campbell, SJ; Wambugu, C; Olick, N; Hagemann, J; Omondi, WP; McCracken, K; Montresor, A; MEDLEY, GF; Fronterre, C; Diggle, P; Mwandawiro, C;
Comparison of collection methods for Phlebotomus argentipes sand flies to use in a molecular xenomonitoring system for the surveillance of visceral leishmaniasis.
McIntyre-Nolan, S; Kumar, V; Mark-Carew, M; Kumar, K; NIGHTINGALE, ES; Dalla Libera Marchiori, G; ROGERS, ME; KRISTAN, M; CAMPINO, S; MEDLEY, GF; Das, P; CAMERON, MM;
PLoS neglected tropical diseases
A modelling analysis of a new multi-stage pathway for classifying achievement of public health milestones for leprosy.
Davis, EL; Crump, RE; MEDLEY, GF; Solomon, AW; Pemmaraju, VR R; Hollingsworth, TD;
Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
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