Professor Graham Medley

of Infectious Disease Modelling

Rm 329

15-17 Tavistock Place
United Kingdom

I joined LSHTM in April 2015. I am a member of the Neglected Tropical Disease Modelling Consortium, the SPEAK India Consortium and ESPHI. I am currently the director of CMMID.

My overall interest is the transmission dynamics of infectious disease, and I have published on many different pathogens and hosts - see [Google] or [ORCID] or [ResearcherID] for a full list. I am particularly interested in understanding how interventions are and should be designed to control infectious disease, and how models relate to policy development. The interaction of transmission with societal and political processes is of particular interest to me, and the focus of my work on HIV/AIDS.

I am on the Board of Reviewing Editors for Science, on an expert group in the Infected Blood Inquiry, and am chair of SPI-M, and am currently attending SAGE as part of the UK COVID-19 response.  


Faculty of Public Health and Policy
Department of Global Health and Development


Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID)


I am involved in teaching on two MSc modules: Analytical Models for Decision Making and Applied Communicable Disease Control. I teach on the Infectious Disease Modelling short course.


I am currently involved in research projects on visceral leishmaniasis, schistosomiasis, RSV, HIV and UK vaccination policy.

  • The visceral leishmaniasis research is part of the SPEAK India Consortium to develop quantitative frameworks to guide policy towards elimination and sustaining elimination. A key part of this work is the "operational imperative" - we only do research of immediate and direct use to the elimination effort.
  • The schistosomiasis and visceral leishmaniasis research is part of the NTD Modelling Consortium.
  • I have been collaborating with Professor D. James Nokes on the epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) for many years, and more recently with the Virus Epidemiology and Control research group in Kilifi, Kenya.
  • I am involved in the OPTIONS modelling team to develop frameworks to evaluate the impact of PrEP for adolescent girls and young women in sub-Saharan Africa.

It is intriguing that, currently, most models of infectious disease transmission dynamics assume that all hosts are identical, when we know that they are not. For some infections, such as measles, it is probably adequate to consider that everybody is average when predicting the impact of immunisation. However, such models result in policy decisions that have "assuming that everybody is equal" as an unwritten assumption. For other infections, such as HIV, assuming that everybody is average is known to be inadequate; the commonest model structures assume that the population is divided into discrete groups, where everybody within the group is average for that group. But how should the groups be chosen, and how do they interact?

Research Area
Infectious disease policy
Public health
Disease control
Mathematical modelling
Disease and Health Conditions
Infectious disease
Human papillomavirus (HPV)
Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs)
Respiratory disease
United Kingdom

Selected Publications

Inferring transmission trees to guide targeting of interventions against visceral leishmaniasis and post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis
Chapman L; Spencer S; Pollington T; Jewell C; Mondal D; Alvar J; Hollingsworth D; Cameron M; Bern C; Medley G
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)
A spatio-temporal approach to short-term prediction of visceral leishmaniasis diagnoses in India.
Nightingale ES; Chapman LAC; Srikantiah S; Subramanian S; Jambulingam P; Bracher J; Cameron MM; Medley GF
PLoS neglected tropical diseases
The role of case proximity in transmission of visceral leishmaniasis in a highly endemic village in Bangladesh.
Chapman LAC; Jewell CP; Spencer SEF; Pellis L; Datta S; Chowdhury R; Bern C; Medley GF; Hollingsworth TD
PLoS neglected tropical diseases
Model-based estimates of transmission of respiratory syncytial virus within households.
Kombe IK; Munywoki PK; Baguelin M; Nokes DJ; Medley GF
Policy Lessons From Quantitative Modeling of Leprosy.
Medley GF; Blok DJ; Crump RE; Hollingsworth TD; Galvani AP; Ndeffo-Mbah ML; Porco TC; Richardus JH
Clinical infectious diseases
When an emerging disease becomes endemic.
Medley GF; Vassall A
Science (New York, NY)
See more Publications