Prof Graham Medley

Professor of Infectious Disease Modellin

United Kingdom

I joined LSHTM in April 2015. I am an infectious disease modeller, and a former director of CMMID. I work a 3-day week.

My overall interest is the transmission dynamics of infectious disease, and I have published on many different pathogens and hosts - see [Google] or [ORCID] or [ResearcherID] for full lists. I am currently a member of the Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) modelling consortium.

I have been on an expert group in the Infected Blood Inquiry. From 2017-2023 I was chair of SPI-M (the pandemic preparedness committee in UK Department of Health), and 2020-2022 I chaired the SPI-M-O modelling subgroup of SAGE which provided evidence to the UK COVID-19 response.


Department of Global Health and Development
Faculty of Public Health and Policy


Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases
Antimicrobial Resistance Centre


I contribute to modules on NTD and Decision Making, and supervise projects.


I am interested in all things infectious. I have projects relating to COVID-19, NTD and HIV.
Research Area
Mathematical Modelling
Disease and Health Conditions
Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs)
Infectious diseases

Selected Publications

A spatio-temporal approach to short-term prediction of visceral leishmaniasis diagnoses in India.
NIGHTINGALE, ES; CHAPMAN, LA C; Srikantiah, S; Subramanian, S; Jambulingam, P; Bracher, J; CAMERON, MM; MEDLEY, GF;
Inferring transmission trees to guide targeting of interventions against visceral leishmaniasis and post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis.
CHAPMAN, LA C; Spencer, SE F; Pollington, TM; Jewell, CP; Mondal, D; Alvar, J; Hollingsworth, TD; CAMERON, MM; Bern, C; MEDLEY, GF;
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)
Model-based estimates of transmission of respiratory syncytial virus within households.
Kombe, IK; Munywoki, PK; BAGUELIN, M; Nokes, DJ; MEDLEY, GF;
The role of case proximity in transmission of visceral leishmaniasis in a highly endemic village in Bangladesh.
CHAPMAN, LA C; Jewell, CP; Spencer, SE F; Pellis, L; Datta, S; Chowdhury, R; Bern, C; MEDLEY, GF; Hollingsworth, TD;
PLoS neglected tropical diseases
Policy Lessons From Quantitative Modeling of Leprosy.
MEDLEY, GF; Blok, DJ; Crump, RE; Hollingsworth, TD; Galvani, AP; Ndeffo-Mbah, ML; Porco, TC; Richardus, JH;
Clinical infectious diseases
When an emerging disease becomes endemic.
Science (New York, NY)
Combining models to generate consensus medium-term projections of hospital admissions, occupancy and deaths relating to COVID-19 in England
Manley, H; Bayley, T; Danelian, G; Burton, L; Finnie, T; Charlett, A; Watkins, NA; Birrell, P; De Angelis, D; Keeling, M; FUNK, S; MEDLEY, G; Pellis, L; BAGUELIN, M; Ackland, GJ; Hutchinson, J; Riley, S; Panovska-Griffiths, J;
Royal Society Open Science
Reducing the Antigen Prevalence Target Threshold for Stopping and Restarting Mass Drug Administration for Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination: A Model-Based Cost-effectiveness Simulation in Tanzania, India and Haiti.
Antony Oliver, MC; Graham, M; Gass, KM; MEDLEY, GF; Clark, J; Davis, EL; Reimer, LJ; King, JD; Pouwels, KB; Hollingsworth, TD;
Clinical infectious diseases
Improving the Cost-efficiency of Preventive Chemotherapy: Impact of New Diagnostics on Stopping Decisions for Control of Schistosomiasis.
Coffeng, LE; Graham, M; Browning, R; Kura, K; Diggle, PJ; Denwood, M; MEDLEY, GF; Anderson, RM; De Vlas, SJ;
Clinical infectious diseases
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