Dr Alex De Figueiredo

MSci MSc PhD

Research Fellow


Keppel Street
United Kingdom

I am a Research Fellow at LSHTM and Statistics Lead at the Vaccine Confidence Project™. I hold a PhD in Mathematics from Imperial College, where I was also an EPSRC Prize Fellow.

My research focuses on using (mainly) Bayesian methods to solve problems at the intersection of public health and vaccine confidence and vaccine acceptance. I am particularly interested in novel methods to infer vaccine confidence at national and sub-national levels; estimating and forecasting vaccine coverage rates for COVID-19 vaccines and routine childhood immunisation programmes; and the social and demographic determinants of vaccine confidence and acceptance.

I have worked extensively on large-scale surveys at global, national, and -- more recently -- sub-national scales, where my recent research seeks to understand local heterogeneities in vaccine acceptance.


Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health


I current teach on the following courses on the MSc Medical Statistics programme:

  • Introduction to Bayes
  • Probability
  • Survival analysis and Bayesian statistics
  • Advanced statistical methods.

I am a module organiser for:

  • Introduction to Bayes
  • Survival analysis and Bayesian statistics.
I am a course organiser for:
  • ICEMS 2023.

I take an active role in supervising, tutoring, and line-managing LSHTM staff. Each year I take on ¬2 students for Master's degree dissertation projects. If you are interested in doing a dissertation with me, please do get in touch.


Much of my recent research has focussed on the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, I have first author publications that:

  • Estimate global trends in COVID-19 vaccine confidence and acceptance with an exploration of the socio-demographic determinants of vaccine confidence (see here and here)
  • Evaluate the impact of COVID-19 vaccine passports on inclination to accept COVID-19 vaccines in the UK (see here)
  • Forecast COVID-19 vaccine uptake in the UK (before vaccine rollout began) (see here).
Research Area
Health policy
Social and structural determinants of health
Bayesian Analysis
Global Health
Spatial analysis
GIS/Spatial analysis
Mathematical modelling
European Union

Selected Publications

The Unintended Consequences of COVID-19 Vaccine Policy: Why Mandates, Passports, and Segregated Lockdowns May Cause more Harm than Good
Bardosh K; Figueiredo AD; Gur-Arie R; Jamrozik E; Doidge JJ; Lemmens T; Keshavjee S; Graham J; Baral S
SSRN Electronic Journal
Exploratory study of the global intent to accept COVID-19 vaccinations.
de Figueiredo A; Larson HJ
Communications Medicine
Measuring the impact of COVID-19 vaccine misinformation on vaccination intent in the UK and USA.
Loomba S; de Figueiredo A; Piatek SJ; de Graaf K; Larson HJ
Nature human behaviour
Monitoring global trends in Covid-19 vaccination intention and confidence: a social media-based deep learning study
Zhou X; de Figueiredo A; Xu Q; Lin L; Kummervold P; Larson H; Jit M; Hou Z
See more Publications