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Dr Nicholas Davies

Associate Professor Modelling

United Kingdom

Jump to: Affiliations Publications

Since 2020, my research has focused on outbreak response. I helped to produce evidence for the UK government during the pandemic as a member of SPI-M and during a secondment to the UK Cabinet Office COVID-19 Task Force. I am now a member of the UK Public Health Rapid Support Team and the NIHR HPRU in Modelling and Health Economics, and I lead the Modelling and Health Economics Theme for the NIHR HPRU in Immunisation.

I am also interested in the evolution of antibiotic resistance in commensal microbes, at both the within-host level and in person-to-person transmission. This involves applying evolutionary epidemiology to understand what forces shape selection for antibiotic resistance.

Affiliations
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics
Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health

Centres

Centre for Epidemic Preparedness and Response
Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases
Vaccine Centre
Antimicrobial Resistance Centre

Selected Publications
Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England.
DAVIES, NG; ABBOTT, S; BARNARD, RC; JARVIS, CI; KUCHARSKI, AJ; MUNDAY, JD; PEARSON, CA B; RUSSELL, TW; TULLY, DC; Washburne, AD; Wenseleers, T; Gimma, A; WAITES, W; WONG, KL M; VAN ZANDVOORT, K; Silverman, JD; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group,; COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium,; DIAZ-ORDAZ, K; KEOGH, R; EGGO, RM; FUNK, S; JIT, M; ATKINS, KE; EDMUNDS, WJ;
2021
Science (New York, N.Y.)
Increased mortality in community-tested cases of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7.
DAVIES, NG; JARVIS, CI; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group,; EDMUNDS, WJ; JEWELL, NP; DIAZ-ORDAZ, K; KEOGH, RH;
2021
Nature
Association of tiered restrictions and a second lockdown with COVID-19 deaths and hospital admissions in England: a modelling study.
DAVIES, NG; BARNARD, RC; JARVIS, CI; RUSSELL, TW; Semple, MG; JIT, M; EDMUNDS, WJ; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Di,; ISARIC4C investigators,;
2020
The Lancet. Infectious diseases
Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study.
DAVIES, NG; KUCHARSKI, AJ; EGGO, RM; Gimma, A; EDMUNDS, WJ; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectiou,;
2020
The Lancet. Public health
Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics
DAVIES, NG; KLEPAC, P; LIU, Y; PREM, K; JIT, M; EGGO, RM;
2020
medRxiv
Enforcement is central to the evolution of cooperation.
Ågren, JA; DAVIES, NG; Foster, KR;
2019
NATURE ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION
Within-host dynamics shape antibiotic resistance in commensal bacteria.
DAVIES, NG; FLASCHE, S; JIT, M; ATKINS, KE;
2019
Nature ecology & evolution
Estimating epidemiological delay distributions for infectious diseases
Park, SW; Akhmetzhanov, A; Charniga, K; Cori, A; DAVIES, N; Dushoff, J; FUNK, S; Gostic, K; Grenfell, B; Linton, N; Lipsitch, M; Lison, A; Overton, C; Ward, T; Abbott, S;
2024
medRxiv
Estimating social contact rates for the COVID-19 pandemic using Google mobility and pre-pandemic contact surveys
PRESTIGE, E; Coletti, P; Backer, J; DAVIES, N; Edmunds, J; Jarvis, C;
2023
medRxiv
Improving modelling for epidemic responses: reflections from members of the UK infectious disease modelling community on their experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic
SHERRATT, K; Carnegie, AC; Kucharski, A; Cori, A; PEARSON, CA B; Jarvis, CI; Overton, C; Weston, D; Hill, EM; Knock, E; Fearon, E; NIGHTINGALE, E; Hellewell, J; Edmunds, WJ; Villabona Arenas, J; PREM, K; Pi, L; Baguelin, M; Kendall, M; Ferguson, N; Davies, N; Eggo, RM; Van Elsland, S; RUSSELL, T; FUNK, S; ... ABBOTT, S.
2024
Wellcome Open Research
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