Dr LLoyd Chapman
in Infectious Disease Modelling
15-17 Tavistock Place
I am a mathematician interested in improving control of infectious diseases through modelling and data analysis, currently working on modelling visceral leishmaniasis transmission as part of the SPEAK India consortium.
My background is in traditional applied mathematics (mathematical biology, fluid dynamics, PDEs, etc.). I studied maths as an undergraduate and did my PhD at Oxford University on mathematical modelling of cell growth in tissue engineering bioreactors.
I am particularly interested in applying novel statistical methods and probabilistic modelling to infectious disease data, and in analysing spatial transmission of diseases.
I am currently part of the SPEAK India consortium, conducting research on visceral leishmaniasis transmission in India to help reach and sustain the 2020 target for elimination as a public health problem (<1 case/10,000 people/year at subdistrict level). There are two components to this work: (1) developing more realistic models of VL transmission to help improve control interventions, and (2) developing a forecasting framework for predicting incidence and outbreak risk at subdistrict level.
For the 3 years before joining LSHTM, I worked on modelling of visceral leishmaniasis transmission in the Indian subcontinent as part of the Neglected Tropical Disease Modelling Consortium. The aim of this work was to improve understanding of transmission of the disease, predict whether current interventions are sufficient to reach the 2020 elimination target, and suggest possible improvements to the current control strategy.