Dr LLoyd Chapman

MMath PhD

Assistant Professor
in Infectious Disease Modelling

15-17 Tavistock Place
United Kingdom

020 7958 8348

I am a mathematician interested in improving control of infectious diseases through modelling and data analysis, currently working on modelling visceral leishmaniasis transmission as part of the SPEAK India consortium.

My background is in traditional applied mathematics (mathematical biology, fluid dynamics, PDEs, etc.). I studied maths as an undergraduate and did my PhD at Oxford University on mathematical modelling of cell growth in tissue engineering bioreactors.

I am particularly interested in applying novel statistical methods and probabilistic modelling to infectious disease data, and in analysing spatial transmission of diseases.

Google Scholar profile





Department of Global Health and Development
Faculty of Public Health and Policy


Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases


I am currently part of the SPEAK India consortium, conducting research on visceral leishmaniasis transmission in India to help reach and sustain the 2020 target for elimination as a public health problem (<1 case/10,000 people/year at subdistrict level). There are two components to this work: (1) developing more realistic models of VL transmission to help improve control interventions, and (2) developing a forecasting framework for predicting incidence and outbreak risk at subdistrict level.

For the 3 years before joining LSHTM, I worked on modelling of visceral leishmaniasis transmission in the Indian subcontinent as part of the Neglected Tropical Disease Modelling Consortium. The aim of this work was to improve understanding of transmission of the disease, predict whether current interventions are sufficient to reach the 2020 elimination target, and suggest possible improvements to the current control strategy.

Research Area
Infectious disease policy
Statistical methods
Bayesian Analysis
Disease control
Spatial analysis
Vector control
GIS/Spatial analysis
Mathematical modelling
Disease and Health Conditions
Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs)
Vector borne disease
South Asia

Selected Publications

Policy Recommendations From Transmission Modeling for the Elimination of Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Indian Subcontinent.
Le Rutte, E.A. ; Chapman, L.A.C. ; Coffeng, L.E. ; Ruiz-Postigo, J.A. ; Olliaro, P.L. ; Adams, E.R. ; Hasker, E.C. ; Boelaert, M.C. ; Hollingsworth, T.D. ; Medley, G.F. ; de Vlas, S.J. ;
Clin Infect Dis
The role of case proximity in transmission of visceral leishmaniasis in a highly endemic village in Bangladesh.
Chapman, L.A.C. ; Jewell, C.P. ; Spencer, S.E.F. ; Pellis, L. ; Datta, S. ; Chowdhury, R. ; Bern, C. ; Medley, G.F. ; Hollingsworth, T.D. ;
PLoS Negl Trop Dis
Quantifying the infectiousness of post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis towards sandflies.
Mondal, D. ; Bern, C. ; Ghosh, D. ; Rashid, M. ; Molina, R. ; Chowdhury, R. ; Nath, R. ; Ghosh, P. ; Chapman, L. ; Alim, A. ; Bilbe, G. ; Alvar, J. ;
Clin Infect Dis
Elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent: a comparison of predictions from three transmission models.
Le Rutte, E.A. ; Chapman, L.A. ; Coffeng, L.E. ; Jervis, S. ; Hasker, E.C. ; Dwivedi, S. ; Karthick, M. ; Das, A. ; Mahapatra, T. ; Chaudhuri, I. ; Boelaert, M.C. ; Medley, G.F. ; Srikantiah, S. ; Hollingsworth, T.D. ; de Vlas, S.J. ;
Variations in visceral leishmaniasis burden, mortality and the pathway to care within Bihar, India.
Jervis, S. ; Chapman, L.A.C. ; Dwivedi, S. ; Karthick, M. ; Das, A. ; Le Rutte, E.A. ; Courtenay, O. ; Medley, G.F. ; Banerjee, I. ; Mahapatra, T. ; Chaudhuri, I. ; Srikantiah, S. ; Hollingsworth, T.D. ;
Parasit Vectors
Understanding the transmission dynamics of Leishmania donovani to provide robust evidence for interventions to eliminate visceral leishmaniasis in Bihar, India.
Cameron, M.M. ; Acosta-Serrano, A. ; Bern, C. ; Boelaert, M. ; den Boer, M. ; Burza, S. ; Chapman, L.A. ; Chaskopoulou, A. ; Coleman, M. ; Courtenay, O. ; Croft, S. ; Das, P. ; Dilger, E. ; Foster, G. ; Garlapati, R. ; Haines, L. ; Harris, A. ; Hemingway, J. ; Hollingsworth, T.D. ; Jervis, S. ; Medley, G. ; Miles, M. ; Paine, M. ; Picado, A. ; Poché, R. ; Ready, P. ; Rogers, M. ; Rowland, M. ; Sundar, S. ; de Vlas, S.J. ; Weetman, D. ;
Parasit Vectors
Quantification of the natural history of visceral leishmaniasis and consequences for control.
Chapman, L.A. ; Dyson, L. ; Courtenay, O. ; Chowdhury, R. ; Bern, C. ; Medley, G.F. ; Hollingsworth, T.D. ;
Parasit Vectors
See all Dr LLoyd Chapman's Publications