Dr Oliver Brady


Associate Professor
and Henry Wellcome Fellow


Keppel Street
United Kingdom


My main area of expertise lies in the macro-scale modelling and mapping of vector-borne diseases with a particular focus on arboviruses including dengue, zika, yellow fever and chikungunya.

Originally trained as a biologist, I undertook a DPhil in the global epidemiology of dengue at the University of Oxford under Prof. Simon Hay. Following this I held a post doc position at the same institution, working closely with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to help set up the Malaria Modelling Consortium before moving to the school at the beginning of 2016. In 2017 I began a Henry Wellcome Fellowship as part of a growing group of arbovirus modellers here at LSHTM.


Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health


Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID)


I teach on the Spatial Epidemiology in Public Health and Epidemiology (3135), Epidemiology and Control of Communicable Diseases (2437) and Modelling & the Dynamics of Infectious Diseases (2464) modules at the School. I also co-organise the Introduction to Spatial Analysis in R (ISAIR) short course that runs over the summer.


My research aims to improve how diseases are controlled by identifying and estimating gaps in disease surveillance to reveal their true burden of disease.

Past projects have included estimating the global distribution and burden of different arboviruses (dengue, Zika, chikungunya) as well as understanding the role of their principle mosquito vectors (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) in their spread. This involves the use of advanced statistical and mathematical modelling techniques to map vector-borne diseases including how they vary over time in response to environmental changes.

These methods also have broad applications in predicting and preventing emerging infectious disease spread from understanding how to stop a dengue outbreak in an urban mega city to preventing intercontinental spread.

I lead the following ongoing projects here at the school:

Estimating the burden of dengue chikungunya and Zika in Latin America. Wellcome trust Henry Wellcome Fellowship (Jul 17 - Jan 22)

ZIKAlliance ( global Zika consortium, mapping and modelling work package. EU Horizon 2020 (Oct 16 - Oct 20)

CADDE ( Brazil-UK Centre for Arbovirus Discovery, Diagnosis, Genomics and Epidemiology. MRC (Apr 19 - Apr 22)

Estimating the impact of Wolbachia scale up in Indonesia. Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (Nov 17 - Jan 22)

Dengue early warning systems in Vietnam. UK Space agency (Feb 18 - Feb 21)

Research Area
Climate change
Infectious disease policy
Disease control
Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
Global Health
Spatial analysis
Vector control
GIS/Spatial analysis
Mathematical modelling
Vector biology
Disease and Health Conditions
Pandemic diseases
Emerging Infectious Disease
Tropical diseases
Vector borne disease
Zoonotic disease
Latin America & Caribbean (all income levels)

Selected Publications

Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam: A modelling study using superensembles.
Colón-González FJ; Soares Bastos L; Hofmann B; Hopkin A; Harpham Q; Crocker T; Amato R; Ferrario I; Moschini F; James S
PLoS medicine
Increased mortality in community-tested cases of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7.
Davies NG; Jarvis CI; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; Edmunds WJ; Jewell NP; Diaz-Ordaz K; Keogh RH
The impact of local and national restrictions in response to COVID-19 on social contacts in England: a longitudinal natural experiment.
Jarvis CI; Gimma A; van Zandvoort K; Wong KLM; CMMID COVID-19 working group; Edmunds WJ
BMC medicine
Real-time monitoring of COVID-19 dynamics using automated trend fitting and anomaly detection.
Jombart T; Ghozzi S; Schumacher D; Taylor TJ; Leclerc QJ; Jit M; Flasche S; Greaves F; Ward T; Eggo RM
Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
Combined effects of hydrometeorological hazards and urbanisation on dengue risk in Brazil: a spatiotemporal modelling study.
Lowe R; Lee SA; O'Reilly KM; Brady OJ; Bastos L; Carrasco-Escobar G; de Castro Catão R; Colón-González FJ; Barcellos C; Carvalho MS
The Lancet. Planetary health
Global and national estimates of the number of healthcare workers at high risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
McCarthy CV; Sandmann FG; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; Jit M
The Journal of hospital infection
Tracking the emergence of disparities in the subnational spread of COVID-19 in Brazil using an online application for real-time data visualisation
Mee P; Alexander N; Mayaud P; Gonzalez FDJC; Abbott S; de Souza Santos AA; Acosta AL; Parag K; Pereira R; Prete C
Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–18: a modelling study
Sartorius B; VanderHeide JD; Yang M; Goosmann EA; Hon J; Haeuser E; Cork MA; Perkins S; Jahagirdar D; Schaeffer LE
The Lancet HIV
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