Dr Marc Baguelin


Assistant Professor

Keppel Street
United Kingdom



I am a mathematical modeller working at the Immunisation department at Public Health England and at the London of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine with Prof. John Edmunds on models of influenza transmission, immunisation and control.

After graduating from the Ecole Centrale de Lille with a MSc in Control engineering from the University of Lille in 2000, I completed a PhD in 2003 on modelling the co-evolution of populations of bacteria and phages. In 2004, I took a position as Research Associate to work in collaboration with the Animal Health Trust, Newmarket, analysing data from equine influenza. I first joined the department of zoology at the University of Cambridge and subsequently the Cambridge Infectious Diseases Consortium in the Department of Veterinary Medicine, following its creation in 2005. I developed a model of transmission of equine influenza including new techniques to infer parameter estimation from sparse data. The model helped to understand the role of compulsory vaccination in changing the dynamics of the equine influenza viruses following the introduction of compulsory vaccination for racehorses in 1981.

In January 2009, I joined the Health Protection Agency (now Public Health England), UK to work with Profs Miller and Edmunds on the modelling and economical evaluation of immunisation policies in the United Kingdom. During the outbreak of pandemic influenza virus in the United Kingdom, I was part of the team of scientists who provided early results to assess the transmission in the United Kingdom. In particular we developed algorithms to integrate epidemiological information with the temporal dynamics of the virus in order to improve estimation of the effective reproduction ratio of the disease. In order to inform vaccination policy decisions with the newly developed pandemic vaccine, I developed with colleagues a model to assess in real time the impact of vaccination strategies. This model incorporates a transmission model fitted to the epidemiological data with health care costs and savings applied to the disease burden. This model was developed and published in real time during the outbreak.

I am also an enthusiastic photographer. Some of my recent work can be seen on my personal website.


Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health


I teach on the "Modelling and the Dynamics of Infectious diseases" module offered by the LSHTM as part of the LSHTM MSc courses and on the eponymous short-course held during the summer. 


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As part of Public Health England I am part of the evaluation of immunisation campaigns in the UK. With a team from Public Health England, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and the Athens University of Economics and Business, we conducted a study about the efficiency of potential extensions of the current influenza vaccination programme. Our study resulted in a change of policy at the national level with an extension of the programme to 2-16 year old children.

Research Area
Economic evaluation
Health care policy
Infectious disease policy
Statistical methods
Bayesian Analysis
Disease control
Molecular epidemiology
Mathematical modelling
Disease and Health Conditions
Infectious disease
Pandemic diseases
United Kingdom

Selected Publications

Effect of mass paediatric influenza vaccination on existing influenza vaccination programmes in England and Wales: a modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis.
Hodgson, D. ; Baguelin, M. ; van Leeuwen, E. ; Panovska-Griffiths, J. ; Ramsay, M. ; Pebody, R. ; Atkins, K.E. ;
Lancet Public Health
Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 1976-2014.
Rosello, A. ; Mossoko, M. ; Flasche, S. ; Van Hoek, A.J. ; Mbala, P. ; Camacho, A. ; Funk, S. ; Kucharski, A. ; Ilunga, B.K. ; Edmunds, W.J. ; Piot, P. ; Baguelin, M. ; Muyembe Tamfum, J.J. ;
Capturing the time-varying drivers of an epidemic using stochastic dynamical systems
Dureau, J.; Kalogeropoulos, K.; Baguelin, M.
Assessing Optimal Target Populations for Influenza Vaccination Programmes: An Evidence Synthesis and Modelling Study.
Baguelin, M. ; Flasche, S. ; Camacho, A. ; Demiris, N. ; Miller, E. ; Edmunds, W.J. ;
PLoS Med
Transmission of equine influenza virus during an outbreak is characterized by frequent mixed infections and loose transmission bottlenecks.
Hughes, J. ; Allen, R.C. ; Baguelin, M. ; Hampson, K. ; Baillie, G.J. ; Elton, D. ; Newton, J.R. ; Kellam, P. ; Wood, J.L. ; Holmes, E.C. ; Murcia, P.R. ;
PLoS Pathog
Age-Specific Incidence of A/H1N1 2009 Influenza Infection in England from Sequential Antibody Prevalence Data Using Likelihood-Based Estimation
Baguelin, M.; Hoschler, K.; Stanford, E.; Waight, P.; Hardelid, P.; Andrews, N.; Miller, E.
PLoS One
Vaccination against pandemic influenza A/H1N1v in England: A real-time economic evaluation
Baguelin, M.; van Hoek, A.J.; Jit, M.; Flasche, S.; White, P.J.; Edmunds, W.J.
See all Dr Marc Baguelin's Publications