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Continuing Professional Development: MSc Programme Modules (London-based)

POPULATION DYNAMICS & PROJECTIONS (2429)

ORGANISER: Basia Zaba

22 February – 23 March 2012 (Wednesdays 2pm to Fridays 5pm)


AIM
To introduce students to the mathematical theory of changes in population size and structure and its application to demographic estimation; to the types and uses of demographic models; and to the principles and practicalities involved in making population forecasts.


OBJECTIVES
By the end of this module students should be able to:

  1. define and interpret the main measures of fertility, mortality and age structure;
  2. describe typical age patterns of fertility, mortality and migration and demonstrate understanding of the models commonly used to represent them;
  3. demonstrate understanding of the interactions between the components of population change and the age structure of the population;
  4. explain the concept of population momentum;
  5. apply several estimation methods derived from the demographic theories studied;
  6. construct national-level population projections using a microcomputer package;
  7. describe the main approaches used to forecast fertility, mortality and migration.


CONSTITUENCY
The module is intended primarily for students on MSc Demography & Health but is also suitable for others with an interest in mathematical modelling. Algebraic formulations of the relationships studied are complemented by intuitive explanations.  Only GCSE maths, together with an understanding of natural logs and exponential growth, are needed to follow the module.


CONCEPTUAL OUTLINE
The first two sessions explain the concept of exponential growth, cover population measures of reproductive level and pace and introduce stable population theory.  Three sessions are devoted to models of fertility, mortality and migration.  This is followed by study of the effects of changes in fertility and mortality on growth, age composition and crude rates, and an investigation of the phenomenon of population momentum.  The three sessions on projections introduce the distinction between projections and forecasts; explain the cohort-component method of population projection; consider the uses of projections, discuss errors in forecasts; and outline the main ways of forecasting fertility, mortality and migration.  Students are introduced to one computer package for making population projections.  The final sessions of the module introduce the generalisation of stable population theory developed in the 1980s and explore some applications of this theory to demographic estimation in populations with limited or defective data.


TEACHING STRATEGY
The 14 half-day sessions are a mixture of lectures and classroom and computer-based practical classes. Detailed course notes are provided.


LEARNING TIME
The module is made up of 150 Notional Learning Hours – 45 hours contact time, 20 hours directed self-study, 60 hours self-directed learning, and 25 hours assessment, review and revision.


ASSESSMENT
The assessment is to produce a report interpreting the changes occurring in an example population for the non-specialist reader using the sets of demographic statistics provided.

FEE

£1,600 including access to LSHTM library and learning resources, study materials and assessment.

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