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Modelling the effect of prison stays on the transmission of Hepatitis
C and HIV amongst injecting drug users - implications for the effectiveness
of different prevention strategies.
Many injecting drug users (IDUs) spend time in prison, either due to
the illegal nature of drug use or their frequent involvement in other
illegal activities to obtain money for drugs. The role that these stints
in prison play in propagating the spread of HIV and HCV could be highly
variable depending on the availability of drugs and injecting equipment
in the prison setting. If drugs are not available then prison may reduce
transmission, whereas if drugs are available but injecting equipment
is not then prison may increase transmission. This project will use
data from a forthcoming Scottish prison survey and ongoing large scale
IDU surveys, and data from another non-UK setting, to develop and use
a HCV and HIV transmission model to assess the role prison can have
on the transmission of these infections in different settings. The project
will explore such things as its relative effect for different durations
and frequencies of incarceration, and levels of drug and syringe availability,
and will also project the possible implications for the impact of a
range of HCV and HIV prevention interventions. The project will involve:
the development of simple and complex models; analysis of different
data surveys to parameterise the models; use of analytical techniques
to simplify complex model structures and produce analytical solutions
to simple models; computer programming; use of Bayesian fitting methods
to calibrate models to available epidemiological data; and close collaboration
with epidemiologists and public health experts. Candidates should be
numerically confident and have completed a undergraduate degree in a
highly numeric subject such as Mathemtics, Physics, Engineering, Statistics
etc.
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