Professor Peter Vickerman BSC DPhil

Honorary Senior Lecturer of Mathematical Epidemiology


Peter Vickerman is a professor in Infecious Disease Modelling at the University of Bristol and a member of LSHTM's Social and Mathematical Epidemiology Group and the Centre for Research on Drugs and Health Behaviour (Faculty of Public Health and Policy). He supervises five post-doc modellers. He has been modelling the transmission of HIV, STIs and blood borne viruses for 15 years, and infectious diseases for 20 years.




Peter has published over 85 articles in peer reviewed journals, reviews articles for 20 journals, is on the editorial board for two peer-reviewed journals, and contributes to six international advisory groups. Originally trained as a mathematician, with a D.Phil in mathematical epidemiology of Leishmaniasis, his research has focused on the use of mathematical modelling with detailed epidemiological, biological and behavioural data to help understand and explore the transmission of different infectious diseases and the impact and cost-effectiveness of prevention measures. Specific expertise focuses on modelling the transmission of HIV and other STIs amongst different risk groups and blood bourne viruses transmitted between injecting drug users. His research interests include modelling the joint transmission and interaction of different infections (e.g. sexual transmission of HIV and HSV-2 or the transmission of HIV and Hepatitis C amongst injecting drug users) in different settings and exploring how the stage and type of epidemic can affect the impact and cost-effectiveness of different interventions. Methodological areas of interest include: understanding the implications of behavioural and biological data uncertainty on model impact and cost-effectiveness projections and exploring different methods of handling these uncertainties, especially through the use of Bayesian methods; and trying to understand and accurately model how new interventions affect different aspects of an individual’s risk behaviour and the subsequent transmission of different infections. He has extensive experience of conducting collaborative research with organisations in Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh), sub-Saharan Africa (South Africa, Tanzania, Benin), Eastern Europe (Ukraine, Belarus, Russia) and UK and is the PI on a number modelling projects with the MRC, Wellcome, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, World Bank and WHO. He is also the Co-PI on a number of large research initiatives in India and Africa.

Research areas

  • Economic evaluation
  • Impact evaluation
  • Modelling
  • Substance abuse


  • Economics
  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical modelling
  • Mathematics

Disease and Health Conditions

  • Addiction
  • Hepatitis
  • Herpesviruses
  • Infectious disease
  • Leishmaniasis
  • Sexually transmitted disease
  • Sexually transmitted infection
  • Syphilis


  • Euro area
  • Europe & Central Asia (developing only)
  • North America
  • South Asia
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (all income levels)


  • Australia
  • Bangladesh
  • Belarus
  • Benin
  • Burkina Faso
  • China
  • Estonia
  • Georgia
  • India
  • Mexico
  • Nigeria
  • Pakistan
  • Russian Federation
  • South Africa
  • Tanzania
  • Ukraine
  • United Kingdom
  • United States

Other interests

  • Adherence
  • Africa
  • Antiretroviral Therapy
  • Antiretrovirals
  • Cannabis
  • Central And Eastern Europe
  • Chlamydia Trachomatis
  • Co-infection
  • Combination prevention
  • Cost Effectiveness Analysis
  • Eastern Europe
  • Effectiveness Evaluations
  • Evaluation
  • Female sex work
  • Former Soviet Union
  • HIV
  • HIV Prevention
  • HIV Self Testing
  • HIV Treatment
  • HIV prevention
  • Handling uncertainty
  • Hepatitis B
  • Hepatitis C
  • Homelessness
  • Injecting Drug Use
  • Injecting Drug Users
  • MSM
  • Males Who Have Sex With Males
  • Microbicides
  • Microbicides and Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PreP)
  • Model Calibration
  • Modelling And Mapping Disease Distribution
  • Sex Work
  • Transactional sex
  • cost effectiveness
  • mathematical modeling
  • structural drivers
  • sub-saharan africa
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