Dr Rachel Lowe BSc MSc PhD
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My research involves understanding how environmental and socio-economic factors interact to determine the risk of disease transmission.
I graduated from the University of East Anglia in 2004 with a First Class BSc (Hons) in Meteorology and Oceanography with a year in Europe. I spent one year at the University of Granada, Spain, reading Environmental Science. In 2007, I completed an MSc with distinction in Geophysical Hazards at University College London (UCL), where I received a UCL Graduate Masters Award. In 2011, I obtained a PhD in Mathematics at the University of Exeter (PhD Thesis: Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil). Alongside my PhD, I was a Network Facilitator for the Leverhulme Trust funded project EUROBRISA: a EURO-BRazilian Initiative for improving South American seasonal forecasts. During the project, I collaborated with climate scientists and public health experts in Brazil, which resulted in my continuing participation in the Brazilian Climate and Health Observatory.
From 2010-2012, I was a Visiting Scientist at the International Centre for Theoretical Physics, where I worked with the Malawi Ministry of Health to develop predictive models for malaria and a platform to integrate climate information and rural telemedicine. From 2012-2016, I was a Postdoctoral Scientist and Head of Climate Services for Health at the Catalan Institute for Climate Sciences (IC3). I have worked with the World Health Organization as a temporary advisor on developing decision making tools for climate and health in Europe. I am on the board of Associate Editors for the journal Reports in Public Health.
My research is funded by a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship, supported by the Global Challenges Research Fund. My current project concerns modelling the impact of global environmental change on vector-borne diseases, such as dengue, Zika, chikungunya and yellow fever.
The aim is to develop statistical and mathematical models to understand the relationship between climatic, socio-economic and demographic factors and variations in disease risk in space and time. Understanding geographical risk is important for targeting limited public health resources, while predicting future risk helps public health authorities plan for changing disease patterns due to shifts in climate or human behaviour.
Alongside my research, I organise and teach on international and regional climate and health capacity building activities for postgraduate students and public health practitioners, with partners at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, International Centre for Theoretical Physics, and the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation.
My outreach activities and previous research on dengue early warning systems have been showcased in policy reports published by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, World Meteorological Organization and World Health Organization.
- Bayesian Analysis
- Capacity strengthening
- Climate change
- Global Health
- Infectious disease policy
- Natural disasters
- Public health
- Spatial analysis
- Mathematical modelling
Disease and Health Conditions
- Emerging Infectious Disease
- Vector borne disease
Evaluation of an Early-Warning System for Heat Wave-Related Mortality in Europe: Implications for Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting and Climate Services.
Lowe, R. ; García-Díez, M. ; Ballester, J. ; Creswick, J. ; Robine, J.M. ; Herrmann, F.R. ; Rodó, X. ;
Int J Environ Res Public Health, 2016; 13(2):206
Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil.
Lowe, R. ; Coelho, C.A. ; Barcellos, C. ; Carvalho, M.S. ; Catão, R.d.e. .C. ; Coelho, G.E. ; Ramalho, W.M. ; Bailey, T.C. ; Stephenson, D.B. ; Rodó, X. ;
Elife, 2016; 5
Quantifying the added value of climate information in a spatio-temporal dengue model
Lowe, R.; Cazelles, B.; Paul, R.; Rodó, X.
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2016; 30(8):2067-2078
Expansion of the dengue transmission area in Brazil: the role of climate and cities.
Barcellos, C. ; Lowe, R. ;
Trop Med Int Health, 2014; 19(2):159-68
Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts.
Lowe, R. ; Barcellos, C. ; Coelho, C.A. ; Bailey, T.C. ; Coelho, G.E. ; Graham, R. ; Jupp, T. ; Ramalho, W.M. ; Carvalho, M.S. ; Stephenson, D.B. ; Rodó, X. ;
Lancet Infect Dis, 2014; 14(7):619-26
The development of an early warning system for climate-sensitive disease risk with a focus on dengue epidemics in Southeast Brazil.
Lowe, R. ; Bailey, T.C. ; Stephenson, D.B. ; Jupp, T.E. ; Graham, R.J. ; Barcellos, C. ; Carvalho, M.S. ;
Stat Med, 2013; 32(5):864-83
Climate and non-climate drivers of dengue epidemics in southern coastal ecuador.
Stewart-Ibarra, A.M. ; Lowe, R. ;
Am J Trop Med Hyg, 2013; 88(5):971-81
Relative importance of climatic, geographic and socio-economic determinants of malaria in Malawi.
Lowe, R. ; Chirombo, J. ; Tompkins, A.M. ;
Malar J, 2013; 12:416
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