Dr Rachel Lowe


Assistant Professor
/ Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellow

My research involves understanding how environmental and socio-economic factors interact to determine the risk of disease transmission. 

I graduated from the University of East Anglia in 2004 with a First Class BSc (Hons) in Meteorology and Oceanography with a year in Europe. I spent one year at the University of Granada, Spain, reading Environmental Science. In 2007, I completed an MSc with distinction in Geophysical Hazards at University College London (UCL), where I received a UCL Graduate Masters Award. In 2011, I obtained a PhD in Mathematics at the University of Exeter (PhD Thesis: Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil). Alongside my PhD, I was a Network Facilitator for the Leverhulme Trust funded project EUROBRISA: a EURO-BRazilian Initiative for improving South American seasonal forecasts. During the project, I collaborated with climate scientists and public health experts in Brazil, which resulted in my continuing participation in the Brazilian Climate and Health Observatory.

From 2010-2012, I was a Visiting Scientist at the International Centre for Theoretical Physics, where I worked with the Malawi Ministry of Health to develop predictive models for malaria and a platform to integrate climate information and rural telemedicine. From 2012-2016, I was a Postdoctoral Scientist and Head of Climate Services for Health at the Catalan Institute for Climate Sciences (IC3). I have worked with the World Health Organization as a temporary advisor on developing decision making tools for climate and health in Europe. I am on the board of Associate Editors for the journal Reports in Public Health.


Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology


Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases


My research is funded by a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship, supported by the Global Challenges Research Fund. My current project concerns modelling the impact of global environmental change on vector-borne diseases, such as dengue, Zika, chikungunya and yellow fever.

The aim is to develop statistical and mathematical models to understand the relationship between climatic, socio-economic and demographic factors and variations in disease risk in space and time. Understanding geographical risk is important for targeting limited public health resources, while predicting future risk helps public health authorities plan for changing disease patterns due to shifts in climate or human behaviour.

Alongside my research, I organise and teach on international and regional climate and health capacity building activities for postgraduate students and public health practitioners, with partners at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, International Centre for Theoretical Physics, and the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation.

My outreach activities and previous research on dengue early warning systems have been showcased in policy reports published by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, World Meteorological Organization and World Health Organization.

Research Area
Climate change
Infectious disease policy
Public health
Bayesian Analysis
Capacity strengthening
Global Health
Natural disasters
Spatial analysis
Mathematical modelling
Disease and Health Conditions
Emerging Infectious Disease
Vector borne disease

Selected Publications

Evaluation of an Early-Warning System for Heat Wave-Related Mortality in Europe: Implications for Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting and Climate Services.
Lowe, R. ; García-Díez, M. ; Ballester, J. ; Creswick, J. ; Robine, J.M. ; Herrmann, F.R. ; Rodó, X. ;
Int J Environ Res Public Health
Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil.
Lowe, R. ; Coelho, C.A. ; Barcellos, C. ; Carvalho, M.S. ; Catão, R.d.e. .C. ; Coelho, G.E. ; Ramalho, W.M. ; Bailey, T.C. ; Stephenson, D.B. ; Rodó, X. ;
Quantifying the added value of climate information in a spatio-temporal dengue model
Lowe, R.; Cazelles, B.; Paul, R.; Rodó, X.
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts.
Lowe, R. ; Barcellos, C. ; Coelho, C.A. ; Bailey, T.C. ; Coelho, G.E. ; Graham, R. ; Jupp, T. ; Ramalho, W.M. ; Carvalho, M.S. ; Stephenson, D.B. ; Rodó, X. ;
Lancet Infect Dis
The development of an early warning system for climate-sensitive disease risk with a focus on dengue epidemics in Southeast Brazil.
Lowe, R. ; Bailey, T.C. ; Stephenson, D.B. ; Jupp, T.E. ; Graham, R.J. ; Barcellos, C. ; Carvalho, M.S. ;
Stat Med
See all Dr Rachel Lowe's Publications